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Tackles + Assists 2.5 · NYG · vs NO · Saints at Giants
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
58%
Edge
-5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 2.5
DK
1.61
-163
Projection2.6vs2.5(0.1 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
59%
13/22
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
-5.0pp
EV
-14.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (13% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
1-4
L101-4
StreakL3
Road0-0
Run diff-33.0
HOMENYG
3-1
L103-1
Streak-
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NO
Out · 6
Nathan ShepherdOUT
Shepherd (illness) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Giants.
Zach WilsonOUT
Wilson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Saints' emergency third quarterback against the Giants on Sunday.
Mike ReidOUT
inactive
John Ridgeway IIIOUT
inactive
Kaden EllissOUT
inactive
Anfernee JenningsOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 3
Confidence readPrice too short
53% to hitrange 45-62%price needs 62%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -163 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 2.6 vs line 2.5
›Model read P(over) 52% sits 6pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 58% across 1 book
›Baby line: 2.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: Abdul Carter
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: Abdul Carter
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 2.5)58.2%
Fair price1.72 · -139
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 3:24 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.65 vs 2.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Abdul Carter · Over the number
model projects 2.65
The best move
Buy this over down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 2.5.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
0
line 2.5
Units
-1.00u
Price CLV vs close: +0.0% - entry -163 → close -163 · 57 snapshots
2.11
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games22
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean2.80
prior_mean2.53
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4725996
season2026
3
39%
13%
48%
2.23 (+123) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 58% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
2.5
1.61 (-163)1.61
2.25 (+125)2.25
DK implied, with vig (this side): 62.0%
Line history
Loading…
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 22; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Saints head coach Kellen Moore stated McKinstry (illness) exited Sunday's 34-27 win over the Giants due to a migraine, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Quincy RileyQ
Riley sustained a neck injury in the Saints' 34-27 win over the Giants on Sunday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.
Cesar RuizQ
Ruiz (knee) won't return to Sunday's game against the Giants, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.
Other · 16ShowHide
Alvin Kamara?
Kamara (undisclosed) returned to Sunday's contest at the Giants.
Zach Wood?
Wood (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Giants.
Jeremiah Wright?
Wright (concussion) is active for Sunday's game against the Giants.
Lorenzo Styles Jr.?
Chris Olave?
Olave (illness) is listed as active Sunday at the Giants, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports.
Tyler Shough?
Shough has been playing with two broken bones in his left hand, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Cedric Tillman?
The Saints elevated Tillman from the practice squad Saturday.
Vernon Broughton?
Broughton (illness) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Colby Wooden?
Tyree Wilson?
Kendre Miller?
Miller turned 10 carries into 30 yards and a touchdown during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Noah Fant?
Fant brought in his lone target for seven yards during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Jordyn Tyson?
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Tyson (hamstring) is "progressing well" but isn't on track to return to practice this week, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports.
Daniel Carlson?
Carlson went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Juwan Johnson?
Johnson brought in four of five targets for 16 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Devaughn Vele?
Vele secured four of six targets for 26 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
NYG
Out · 6
Jermaine EluemunorOUT
inactive
Jake HaenerOUT
Haener is inactive for Sunday's game against the Saints but is listed as the Giants' emergency quarterback, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports.
Tyler NubinOUT
inactive
CJ OkoyeOUT
inactive
Colton HoodOUT
inactive
Theo JohnsonOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 3
Tremaine EdmundsQ
Edmuns (shoulder) suffered an injury on the final Saints' offensive play of Sunday's game, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.
Darnell MooneyQ
Mooney (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Saints, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.
Greg Newsome IIQ
Newsome (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Saints, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Other · 16ShowHide
Andrew Thomas?
Thomas did not sustain a concussion in the Giants' 34-27 loss to the Saints on Sunday, Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post reports.
Abdul Carter?
Carter (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.?
Tracy is expected to continue serving as the Giants' primary third-down back in Sunday's game against the Saints, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.
Najee Harris?
Harris is expected to serve as the Giants' starting running back in Sunday's game against the Saints, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo had a "pretty even split in reps" this week with fellow running back Najee Harris and could be in store for fewer snaps and touches than usual in Sunday's game against the Saints, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.
Jason Pinnock?
Pinnock (concussion) doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Malik Harrison
?
J.J. McCarthy?
Giants head coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday he plans to keep using McCarthy in a change-of-pace role behind starting quarterback Jameis Winston in an effort to take advantage of McCarthy's scrambling ability, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Braxton Berrios?
Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Malachi Fields?
Fields hauled in both of his targets for 20 yards during the Giants' 27-27 tie with the Commanders on Sunday.
Dru Phillips?
Phillips had five total tackles (five solo) and 2.0 sacks in Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Nikko Reed?
J.C. Davis?
Bobby Jamison-Travis?
Devin Singletary?
Dominic Zvada?
Zvada went 2-for-5 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
★ RECENT FORM
Abdul Carter · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.2
LAST 10
67%
4/6 over · avg 2.3
SEASON
67%
4/6 over · avg 2.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.61 (-163) the price needs 62% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Abdul Carter · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 2.5
3
0
3
5
0
LARTENARIWSHNO
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 18vsNOL0Miss
Oct 11@WSH-5Hit
Oct 4vsARIW3Hit
Sep 27vsTENW0Miss
Sep 22@LARL3Hit
Sep 14vsDALW3Hit
Jan 4vsDALW0Miss
Dec 28@LVW3Hit
Dec 21vsMINL2Miss
Dec 14vsWSHL7Hit
Dec 2@NEL4Hit
Nov 23@DETL4Hit
Nov 16vsGBL1Miss
Nov 9@CHIL0Miss
Nov 2vsSFL1Miss
Oct 26@PHIL5Hit
Oct 19@DENL3Hit
Oct 10vsPHIW0Miss
Oct 5@NOL4Hit
Sep 28vsLACW1Miss
Sep 22vsKCL4Hit
Sep 14@DALL1Miss
Sep 7@WSHL3Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 62% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
