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4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
46%
Market %
49%
Edge
-3.7pp
Market
Receiving Yards 5.5
DK
1.94
-106
Projection8.4vs5.5(2.9 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
18%
2/11
SZN
18%
2/11
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-3.7pp
EV
-11.3%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-2 on Johnson
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
Roschon Johnson · Receiving Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
2/4 over · avg 10.3
LAST 10
50%
2/4 over · avg 10.3
SEASON
50%
2/4 over · avg 10.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.94 (-106) the price needs 51% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Roschon Johnson · Receiving Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Line 5.5
0
0
0
7
34
MINMINPHINYJGB
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11@GBL34Hit
Oct 4vsNYJW7Hit
Sep 29vsPHIW0Miss
Sep 20vsMINL0Miss
Nov 16@MINW0Miss
Nov 9vsNYGW0Miss
Oct 19vsNOW0Miss
Oct 14@WSHW0Miss
Sep 28@LVW0Miss
Sep 21vsDALW0Miss
Sep 14@DETL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 51% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 3
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
Elliott (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
T.J. EdwardsOUT
Edwards (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game in Atlanta.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Kyler GordonQ
The Bears activated Gordon (calf) from reserve/PUP on Saturday.
Caleb WilliamsQ
Williams (hamstring) is expected to start Sunday's game against the Falcons, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.Q
Confidence readPrice too short
46% to hitrange 42-50%price needs 51%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -106 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 8.4 vs line 5.5
›Edge test fails: 53% looks big, but the actual gap is only 2.9 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 49% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 5.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 5.5)49.4%
Fair price2.03 · +103
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 1:59 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line8.40 vs 5.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched7
Current mean10.30
Prior mean0
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Roschon Johnson · Over the number
model projects 8.4
The best move
The 5.5 is already the best line on the board (3.8% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4.5
55%
-
45%
1.74 (-136)
-5.3%
5
53%
1%
45%
1.85 (-118) fair
-
5.5nowbest EV
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+1.9/ 55
Calibrated win probability 46%
Market+-1.9/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (49% our side)
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401872999-RoschonJohnson-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/18/2026, 5:59:02 AM
Variance23.00
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched7
current_mean10.30
prior_mean0
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games11
player_espn_id4426386
season2026
53%
-
47%
1.94 (-106)
+3.8%
6
52%
1%
47%
1.89 (-112) fair
-
9.5
49%
-
51%
2.54 (+154)
(+23.7%)
14.5
43%
-
57%
3.73 (+273)
(+60%)
19.5
37%
-
63%
5.30 (+430)
(+97.5%)
24.5
32%
-
68%
7.30 (+630)
(+133.4%)
29.5
27%
-
73%
9.50 (+850)
(+157.4%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Stevenson (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Other · 19
Anthony Johnson Jr.?
ir
Dayo Odeyingbo?
The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.
Zavier Scott?
The Bears elevated Scott from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons.
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Case Keenum?
Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta, but if he's not given the green light to return, then it's unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts under center for Chicago, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Tyson Bagent?
Whether Bagent starts or serves in a backup role against the Falcons on Sunday depends largely on whether Caleb Williams (hamstring) is cleared to return from a three-game absence, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jayden Loving?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Luther Burden III?
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Noah Sewell?
Sewell (Achilles) is active for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Darnell Wright?
Joe Thuney?
ATL
Out · 1
C.J. HendersonOUT
Henderson (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Za'Darius SmithQ
Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 23
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (ribs) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Kendal Daniels?
Cameron Thomas?
Divine Deablo?
Deablo (hamstring) was a full participant at practice Thursday, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught two of four passes for 54 yards during the Falcons' 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Jack Strand?
Ethan Onianwa?
Malcolm DeWalt IV?
Christian Harris?
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Cooper Rush?
Rush (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens but will serve as the emergency quarterback, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Michael Jerrell?
Harold Perkins Jr.?
Perkins recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) including 0.5 sacks and a pass defensed during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Austin Hooper?
Hooper caught his only target for nine yards during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
