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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
51%
Edge
-3.0pp
Market
Rushing Yards 5.5
FD
1.83
-120
Projection4.5vs5.5(1.0 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
SZN
77%
17/22
H2H
-
ACC
54%
n=990
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-3.0pp
EV
-11.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on III
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 4.5 vs line 5.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 51% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Baby line: 5.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: CHI has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ CHI has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)51.2%
Fair price2.05 · +105
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 1:01 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.50 vs 5.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched17
Current mean4.40
Prior mean1.90
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
5.5
1.93 (-108)1.93
1.83 (-120)1.83
FD implied, with vig (this side): 54.5%
Confidence readPrice too short
48% to hitrange 47-50%price needs 55%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -120 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 5.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
5
50%
1%
49%
1.98 (-102) fair
-
5.5now
51%
-
49%
1.83 (-120)
-6.3%
6
51%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 6
Anthony Johnson Jr.OUT
out
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
Elliott (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Dayo OdeyingboOUT
Odeyingbo (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyler GordonOUT
Gordon (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
T.J. EdwardsOUT
Edwards (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game in Atlanta.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.Q
Stevenson (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Caleb WilliamsQ
Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta.
Other · 17
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Case Keenum?
Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta, but if he's not given the green light to return, then it's unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts under center for Chicago, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Tyson Bagent?
Whether Bagent starts or serves in a backup role against the Falcons on Sunday depends largely on whether Caleb William (hamstring) is cleared to return from a three-game absence, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jayden Loving?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Luther Burden III?
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Noah Sewell?
Sewell (Achilles) is active for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Darnell Wright?
Joe Thuney?
Jonah Jackson?
ATL
Out · 1
C.J. HendersonOUT
Henderson (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Za'Darius SmithQ
Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 23
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (ribs) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Kendal Daniels?
Cameron Thomas?
Divine Deablo?
Deablo (hamstring) was a full participant at practice Thursday, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught two of four passes for 54 yards during the Falcons' 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Jack Strand?
Ethan Onianwa?
Malcolm DeWalt IV?
Christian Harris?
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Cooper Rush?
Rush (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens but will serve as the emergency quarterback, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Michael Jerrell?
Harold Perkins Jr.?
Perkins recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) including 0.5 sacks and a pass defensed during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Austin Hooper?
Hooper caught his only target for nine yards during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Luther Burden III · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 4.4
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 4.4
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 4.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.83 (-120) the price needs 55% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Luther Burden III · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 11@GBL2Hit
Oct 4vsNYJW11Miss
Sep 29vsPHIW7Miss
Sep 20vsMINL0Hit
Sep 13@CARW2Hit
Jan 18vsLARL0Hit
Jan 11vsGBW-4Hit
Jan 4vsDETL10Miss
Dec 29@SFL0Hit
Dec 14vsCLEW0Hit
Dec 7@GBL3Hit
Nov 28@PHIW3Hit
Nov 23vsPITW15Miss
Nov 16@MINW0Hit
Nov 9vsNYGW0Hit
Oct 26@BALL0Hit
Oct 19vsNOW-1Hit
Oct 14@WSHW0Hit
Sep 28@LVW0Hit
Sep 21vsDALW7Miss
Sep 14@DETL0Hit
Sep 9vsMINL0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 55% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
