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5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
18%
Market %
21%
Edge
-2.4pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
FD
4.30
+330
Projection0.2vs0.5(0.3 under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
10%
2/20
SZN
10%
2/20
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.4pp
EV
-21.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 0-6 on Raymond
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 16% from 0.17 TD per game over 20 games, priced P(yes) 18%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.3 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 21% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: CHI has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ CHI has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)20.5%
Fair price4.87 · +387
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 3:52 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.16 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games15
Prior games fetched15
Current mean0.200
Prior mean0.067
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
0.5
4.10 (+310)4.10
- (0)1.00
FD★ Best
0.5
4.30 (+330)4.30
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
4.10 (+310)4.10
- (0)1.00
FD implied, with vig (this side): 23.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
18% to hitrange 12-25%price needs 23%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +330 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (21.8% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
28%
-
72%
4.30 (+330)
(+21.8%)
1
3%
26%
72%
28.90 (+2790) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
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Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 6
Anthony Johnson Jr.OUT
out
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
Elliott (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Dayo OdeyingboOUT
Odeyingbo (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyler GordonOUT
Gordon (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
T.J. EdwardsOUT
Edwards (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game in Atlanta.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-21.9%
Edge %-2.4pp
Card ID: c-401872999-KalifRaymond-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 7:52:12 AM
0.38
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games15
prior_games_fetched15
current_mean0.200
prior_mean0.067
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games20
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.170
player_espn_id2973405
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.Q
Stevenson (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Caleb WilliamsQ
Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta.
Other · 17
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Case Keenum?
Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta, but if he's not given the green light to return, then it's unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts under center for Chicago, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Tyson Bagent?
Whether Bagent starts or serves in a backup role against the Falcons on Sunday depends largely on whether Caleb William (hamstring) is cleared to return from a three-game absence, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jayden Loving?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Luther Burden III?
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Noah Sewell?
Sewell (Achilles) is active for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Darnell Wright?
Joe Thuney?
Jonah Jackson?
ATL
Out · 1
C.J. HendersonOUT
Henderson (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Za'Darius SmithQ
Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 23
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (ribs) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Kendal Daniels?
Cameron Thomas?
Divine Deablo?
Deablo (hamstring) was a full participant at practice Thursday, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught two of four passes for 54 yards during the Falcons' 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Jack Strand?
Ethan Onianwa?
Malcolm DeWalt IV?
Christian Harris?
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Cooper Rush?
Rush (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens but will serve as the emergency quarterback, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Michael Jerrell?
Harold Perkins Jr.?
Perkins recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) including 0.5 sacks and a pass defensed during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Austin Hooper?
Hooper caught his only target for nine yards during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
★ RECENT FORM
Kalif Raymond · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
LAST 10
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
SEASON
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 4.30 (+330) the price needs 23% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Kalif Raymond · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 11@GBL0Miss
Oct 4vsNYJW0Miss
Sep 29vsPHIW1Hit
Sep 20vsMINL0Miss
Sep 13@CARW0Miss
Jan 4@CHIW0Miss
Dec 25@MINL0Miss
Dec 21vsPITL1Hit
Dec 14@LARL0Miss
Nov 23vsNYGW0Miss
Nov 17@PHIL0Miss
Nov 9@WSHW0Miss
Nov 2vsMINL0Miss
Oct 20vsTBW0Miss
Oct 13@KCL0Miss
Oct 5@CINW0Miss
Sep 28vsCLEW0Miss
Sep 23@BALW0Miss
Sep 14vsCHIW0Miss
Sep 7@GBL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 23% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
