Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
5 games this season, 12 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
6.5
UNDER
6.5
Our win %
56%
Market %
56%
Edge
+0.4pp
Market
Receptions 6.5
DK
1.73
-137
Projection5.9vs6.5(0.6 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
59%
10/17
SZN
59%
10/17
H2H
-
ACC
56%
n=2757
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions under plays: 56% of 2757 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+0.4pp
EV
-2.5%
Alpha Score
43
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-5 on London
◆Best lineBuy up to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake (12% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 5.9 vs line 6.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.6 gap is only 9% of the 6.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 56% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~57% have hit 56% over 2757 graded, of which 1381 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 1.5pp.
›Opponent CHI missing 6, context on this card and not a knock against it
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2757 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 56%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1381 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 1.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 6.5)55.9%
Fair price2.27 · +127
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line5.90 vs 6.5
5 games this season, 12 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games12
Prior games fetched12
Current mean5.40
Prior mean5.70
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
6.5
2.07 (+107)2.07
1.73 (-137)1.73
FD
6.5
2.24 (+124)2.24
1.60 (-166)1.60
DK implied, with vig (this side): 57.8%
Confidence readOn the fence
56% to hitrange 46-66%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -137 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake instead of losing (12% of outcomes), same win chance as the 6.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
6
45%
13%
42%
1.94 (-106) fair
-
6.5nowbest EV
58%
-
42%
1.73 (-137)
+0.2%
7
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 6
Anthony Johnson Jr.OUT
out
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
Elliott (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Dayo OdeyingboOUT
Odeyingbo (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyler GordonOUT
Gordon (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
T.J. EdwardsOUT
Edwards (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game in Atlanta.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-2.5%
Edge %+0.4pp
Card ID: c-401872999-DrakeLondon-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:41 AM
2.50
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games12
prior_games_fetched12
current_mean5.40
prior_mean5.70
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games17
player_espn_id4426502
season2026
push-safe
58%
12%
30%
1.52 (-193) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 56% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.Q
Stevenson (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Caleb WilliamsQ
Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta.
Other · 17
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Case Keenum?
Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta, but if he's not given the green light to return, then it's unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts under center for Chicago, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Tyson Bagent?
Whether Bagent starts or serves in a backup role against the Falcons on Sunday depends largely on whether Caleb William (hamstring) is cleared to return from a three-game absence, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jayden Loving?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Luther Burden III?
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Noah Sewell?
Sewell (Achilles) is active for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Darnell Wright?
Joe Thuney?
Jonah Jackson?
ATL
Out · 1
C.J. HendersonOUT
Henderson (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Za'Darius SmithQ
Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 23
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (ribs) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Kendal Daniels?
Cameron Thomas?
Divine Deablo?
Deablo (hamstring) was a full participant at practice Thursday, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught two of four passes for 54 yards during the Falcons' 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Jack Strand?
Ethan Onianwa?
Malcolm DeWalt IV?
Christian Harris?
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Cooper Rush?
Rush (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens but will serve as the emergency quarterback, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Michael Jerrell?
Harold Perkins Jr.?
Perkins recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) including 0.5 sacks and a pass defensed during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Austin Hooper?
Hooper caught his only target for nine yards during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
★ RECENT FORM
Drake London · Receptions vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.4
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.4
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.73 (-137) the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Drake London · Receptions vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 12vsBALL7Miss
Oct 6@NOW5Hit
Sep 25@GBW9Miss
Sep 20vsCARL4Hit
Sep 13@PITL2Hit
Jan 4vsNOW4Hit
Dec 30vsLARW1Hit
Dec 21@ARIW3Hit
Nov 16vsCARL7Miss
Nov 9@INDL6Hit
Nov 2@NEL9Miss
Oct 20@SFL4Hit
Oct 13vsBUFW10Miss
Sep 28vsWSHW8Miss
Sep 21@CARL5Hit
Sep 15@MINW3Hit
Sep 7vsTBL8Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 6.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions under) hit 55.9% over 2,757 graded cards, 2,752 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
