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Tackles + Assists 3.5 · CHI · @ ATL · Bears at Falcons
5 games this season, 12 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
49%
Edge
+3.1pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 3.5
DK
1.88
-114
Projection3.4vs3.5(0.1 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
59%
10/17
SZN
59%
10/17
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+3.1pp
EV
-3.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (13% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 7
Case KeenumOUT
Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Bears' emergency third quarterback against the Falcons on Sunday.
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.OUT
Stevenson (hip) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
inactive
Jayden LovingOUT
inactive
Jordan McFaddenOUT
inactive
T.J. EdwardsOUT
inactive
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
inactive
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 44-59%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 3.4 vs line 3.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 49% across 2 books
›Baby line: 3.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: CHI has 8 OUT
›Opponent ATL missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ CHI has 8 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 3.5)48.5%
Fair price1.94 · -106
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line3.38 vs 3.5
5 games this season, 12 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games17
Current games5
Prior games12
Prior games fetched12
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Austin Booker · Under the number
model projects 3.38
The best move
Buy this under up to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 3.5.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
WIN
Actual
3
line 3.5
Units
+0.63u
Price CLV vs close: +0.0% - entry -160 → close -160 · 28 snapshots
2.00
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games17
current_games5
prior_games12
prior_games_fetched12
current_mean2.80
prior_mean3.67
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4683553
season2026
push-safe
52%
13%
36%
1.69 (-145) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Jackson (hip) is doubtful to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Other · 17ShowHide
Roschon Johnson?
Johnson rushed 13 times for 51 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 31-23 win over the Falcons. He caught both of his targets for 34 yards.
Anthony Johnson Jr.?
ir
Cam Lewis?
Lewis returned to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Tyson Bagent?
With Caleb Williams (hamstring) active, Tyson Bagent will serve as the Bears' backup quarterback against the Falcons on Sunday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Kyler Gordon?
Gordon (calf) is active for Sunday's game against Atlanta.
Caleb Williams?
Williams (hamstring) is listed as active for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Dayo Odeyingbo?
The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.
Zavier Scott?
The Bears have elevated Scott from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons.
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
ATL
Out · 7
Cooper RushOUT
Rush (coach's decision) is listed as inactive but will serve as the Falcons' emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Bears.
Jack StrandOUT
inactive
Ethan OnianwaOUT
inactive
Christian HarrisOUT
inactive
C.J. HendersonOUT
inactive
Drake JacksonOUT
inactive
Malcolm DeWalt IVOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 3
Kendal DanielsQ
Daniels (neck) is alert and has movement in all his extremities while being evaluated at Grady Memorial Hospital.
Billy Bowman Jr.Q
Bowman (hamstring) is doubtful to return to Sunday's game against Atlanta, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Divine DeabloQ
Deablo (arm) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Bears, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 15ShowHide
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught three of five targets for 87 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 31-23 loss to Chicago.
Avieon Terrell?
Terrell (head) returned to Sunday's game against the Bears, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (undisclosed) reentered Sunday's game versus the Bears, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Za'Darius Smith?
Smith (neck) is active for Sunday's game against the Bears.
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Cameron Thomas?
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Austin Booker · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 2.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 2.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 2.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Austin Booker · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 3.5
2
1
4
2
5
CARMINPHINYJGB
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11@GBL5Miss
Oct 4vsNYJW2Hit
Sep 29vsPHIW4Miss
Sep 20vsMINL1Hit
Sep 13@CARW2Hit
Jan 18vsLARL3Hit
Jan 11vsGBW6Miss
Jan 4vsDETL3Hit
Dec 29@SFL3Hit
Dec 21vsGBW7Miss
Dec 14vsCLEW4Miss
Dec 7@GBL5Miss
Nov 28@PHIW3Hit
Nov 23vsPITW2Hit
Nov 16@MINW2Hit
Nov 9vsNYGW4Miss
Nov 2@CINW2Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
