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Tackles + Assists 4.5 · CAR · @ PHI · Panthers at Eagles
4 games this season, 100% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
54%
Edge
-3.2pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 4.5
DK
1.74
-136
Projection4.4vs4.5(0.1 under)
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
-3.2pp
EV
-11.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake (13% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 40-62%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -136 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 4.4 vs line 4.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 54% across 1 book
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 4 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
›Injury kill: CAR has 9 OUT
›Opponent PHI missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ CAR has 9 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 4.5)54.2%
Fair price2.18 · +118
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.43 vs 4.5
4 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games4
Current games4
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (19)
Variance2.00
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Will Lee III · Under the number
model projects 4.43
The best move
Buy this under up to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 4.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4
38%
13%
49%
2.29 (+129) fair
-
4.5now
51%
-
49%
1.74 (-136)
-11.6%
5
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+17.8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 51%
Market+12.5/ 15
Market consensus 54% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 20; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
4.5
2.05 (+105)2.05
1.74 (-136)1.74
DK implied, with vig (this side): 57.6%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-11.6%
Edge %-3.2pp
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Will Lee III · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 under · avg 4.8
LAST 10
20%
1/5 under · avg 4.8
SEASON
20%
1/5 under · avg 4.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.74 (-136) the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Will Lee III · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
20%1/5 under
Line 4.5
5
2
6
5
6
CHIATLCLEDETPHI
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 18@PHIW6Miss
Oct 5vsDETW5Miss
Sep 27@CLEL6Miss
Sep 20@ATLW2Hit
Sep 13vsCHIL5Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 4.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 8
Monroe FreelingOUT
Freeling (knee) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Haynes KingOUT
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will be the emergency third quarterback against the Eagles on Sunday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Ja'Tavion SandersOUT
Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive against the Eagles on Sunday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Albert Reese IVOUT
inactive
Torricelli Simpkins IIIOUT
inactive
TeRah EdwardsOUT
inactive
AJ DillonOUT
inactive
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Thomas IncoomQ
Incoom (calf) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Eagles, Kassidy Hill of the Panthers' official site reports.
Other · 16ShowHide
Darren Waller?
Waller failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 25-14 win over the Eagles.
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble caught all four targets for 46 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 25-14 win over the Eagles.
Jaelan Phillips?
Phillips (hamstring) has returned to Sunday's game against the Eagles, Kassidy Hill of the Panthers' official site reports.
Damien Lewis?
Lewis (elbow) is active for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Taylor Moton?
Moton (illness) is active for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Tershawn Wharton?
Wharton (neck) is active for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Trevor Etienne?
Etienne (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
PHI
Out · 7
AJ EpenesaOUT
Epenesa (back) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Hollywood BrownOUT
Brown (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Joe MiltonOUT
Milton (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Eagles' emergency third quarterback against the Panthers on Sunday.
Lane JohnsonOUT
out
Jalyx HuntOUT
inactive
Saquon BarkleyOUT
inactive
Michael Carter IIOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 2
Nolan Smith Jr.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Q
Smith (concussion) won't return to Sunday's game against Carolina.
Carson SteeleQ
Steele is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Panthers due to a right shoulder injury.
Other · 16ShowHide
Makai Lemon?
Lemon caught three of six targets for 19 yards in Sunday's 25-14 loss to the Panthers.
Dallas Goedert?
Goedert caught six of eight targets for 61 yards during Sunday's 25-14 loss to the Panthers.
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (undisclosed) returned to Sunday's contest versus the Panthers, Brooks Kubena of The Athletic reports.
Drew Kendall?
Kendall (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Cole Payton?
Payton is active as the backup to starting quarterback Tanner McKee in Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Tanner McKee?
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni confirmed Friday that McKee will start Sunday's game against the Panthers, NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) won't come off injured reserve this weekend and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 6 battle against Carolina.
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Eli Stowers?
The Eagles have downgraded Stowers (quadriceps) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
The Eagles downgraded Calcaterra (back) to out Saturday for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Jaydon Blue?
The Eagles signed Blue off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz is not being elevated from the practice squad for Sunday's matchup against Carolina, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Hurts?
The Eagles placed Hurts (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
◆ GRADED · 2026-10-17
This card is settled.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
6
line 4.5
Units
-1.00u
Price CLV vs close: +0.0% - entry -150 → close -150 · 16 snapshots
