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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
WATCH
◇⊘
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
Our win %
60%
Market %
55%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 3.5
DK
1.71
-141
Projection4.5vs3.5(1.0 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
25%
5/20
SZN
29%
7/24
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
2.4%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
0.84u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 3.34u
◆Best lineBuy down to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake (11% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 3 of 4 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 4 lose together 2.6% to 37.8% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 2
AJ DillonOUT
Dillon (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Taylor MotonQ
The Panthers activated Moton (illness) from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday.
Tershawn WhartonQ
The Panthers activated Wharton (neck) from the reserve/PUP list Saturday.
Trevor EtienneQ
The Panthers activated Etienne (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday.
Monroe Freeling
Confidence readOn the fence
60% to hitrange 52-67%price needs 59%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -141 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 4.5 vs line 3.5
›Model read P(over) 62% sits 7pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 55% across 1 book
›Baby line: 3.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Same-game cap: read 3 of 4 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 4 lose together somewhere between 2.6% and 37.8% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 3.5)54.9%
Fair price1.82 · -122
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:29 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.47 vs 3.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games24
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched19
›All model inputs (19)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Riq Woolen · Over the number
model projects 4.47
The best move
Buy this over down to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake instead of losing (11% of outcomes), same win chance as the 3.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
3push-safe
62%
11%
27%
1.44 (-227) fair
-
3.5nowbest EV
62%
-
38%
1.71 (-141)
+5.8%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+44.7/ 55
Calibrated win probability 60%
Market+14.7/ 15
Market consensus 55% on our side
Price+5.9/ 15
2.4% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401872998-RiqWoolen-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/18/2026, 4:29:05 AM
Variance2.31
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games24
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean4.40
prior_mean2.58
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4245185
season2026
4
50%
12%
38%
1.77 (-130) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 55% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
3.5
1.71 (-141)1.71
2.08 (+108)2.08
DK implied, with vig (this side): 58.5%
Line history
Loading…
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 57; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Freeling (knee) is listed as doubtful against the Eagles on Sunday.
Damien LewisQ
Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Philadelphia.
Jaelan PhillipsQ
Phillips (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Other · 17
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble (ribs) has no injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Darren Waller?
Waller (toe) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Albert Reese IV?
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Chuba Hubbard?
Hubbard rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Tetairoa McMillan?
McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Haynes King?
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Panthers' emergency third quarterback Sunday night versus Detroit.
Lee Hunter?
PHI
Out · 4
Lane JohnsonOUT
out
Jalyx HuntOUT
Hunt (ankle/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against Carolina.
Michael Carter IIOUT
Carter (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Saquon BarkleyOUT
Barkley (hamstring) wasn't spotted at Friday's practice, Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Drew KendallQ
Kendall (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
AJ EpenesaD
Epenesa (back) is doubtful for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Other · 19
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) won't come off injured reserve this weekend and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 6 battle against Carolina.
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Eli Stowers?
The Eagles downgraded Stowers (quadriceps) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
The Eagles downgraded Calcaterra (back) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Jaydon Blue?
The Eagles signed Blue off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz is not being elevated from the practice squad for Sunday's matchup against Carolina, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Hurts?
The Eagles placed Hurts (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
E.J. Jenkins?
Hollywood Brown?
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's contest versus the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith?
Smith (hamstring) practiced in full Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game versus the Panthers.
Will Shipley?
The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.
Joe Milton III?
The Eagles are signing Milton off the Cowboys' practice squad, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports.
Marcus Epps?
Epps (groin) practiced fully Thursday.
Tanner McKee?
McKee appears lined up to start Sunday's game against the Panthers after the Eagles announced Wednesday that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Week 6 due to a superficial blood clot on his calf, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jalen Carter?
Carter logged five tackles (three solo), including 2.0 sacks, one pass defense and two forced fumbles during the Eagles' 19-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in London.
Riq Woolen · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
★ RECENT FORM
Riq Woolen · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 4.4
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 4.4
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 4.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.71 (-141) the price needs 59% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Riq Woolen · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 3.5
1
3
5
7
6
WSHTENCHILARJAX
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11@JAXL6Hit
Oct 4vsLARL7Hit
Sep 29@CHIL5Hit
Sep 20@TENW3Miss
Sep 13vsWSHW1Miss
Feb 8@NEW4Hit
Jan 25vsLARW2Miss
Jan 18vsSFW2Miss
Jan 4@SFW2Miss
Dec 28@CARW2Miss
Dec 19vsLARW1Miss
Dec 14vsINDW0Miss
Dec 7@ATLW5Hit
Nov 30vsMINW2Miss
Nov 23@TENW2Miss
Nov 16@LARL2Miss
Nov 9vsARIW3Miss
Nov 3@WSHW3Miss
Oct 21vsHOUW2Miss
Oct 5vsTBL3Miss
Sep 26@ARIW1Miss
Sep 21vsNOW6Hit
Sep 14@PITW3Miss
Sep 7vsSFL4Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 59% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
