Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.9pp
EV
-11.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 24.5 at 2.08 (+108) (+6.9% EV)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 2
AJ DillonOUT
Dillon (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Taylor MotonQ
The Panthers activated Moton (illness) from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday.
Tershawn WhartonQ
The Panthers activated Wharton (neck) from the reserve/PUP list Saturday.
Trevor EtienneQ
The Panthers activated Etienne (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday.
Monroe Freeling
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 35-59%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 25.8 vs line 21.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: 21.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 5 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 21.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 3:06 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line25.80 vs 21.5
5 games last season, 0% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games0
Prior games5
Prior games fetched5
Prior mean25.80
Role shift0
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jaydon Blue · Over the number
model projects 25.8
The best move
Best value is the 24.5 at 2.08 (+108) (6.9% EV) - a better number than the 21.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4.5
72%
-
28%
1.09 (-1100)
-21.8%
9.5
67%
-
33%
1.25 (-400)
-16.2%
14.5
62%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+6.4/ 55
Calibrated win probability 47%
Market+0/ 15
Market consensus 50% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401872998-JaydonBlue-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/18/2026, 7:06:00 AM
25.00
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games0
prior_games5
prior_games_fetched5
current_meannull
prior_mean25.80
current_weight0
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games5
player_espn_id4685279
season2026
-
38%
1.45 (-220)
-9.7%
19.5
57%
-
43%
1.74 (-136)
-1.4%
21
55%
1%
44%
1.81 (-124) fair
-
21.5now
55%
-
45%
1.88 (-113)
+3%
22
54%
1%
45%
1.85 (-118) fair
-
24.5best EV
51%
-
49%
2.08 (+108)
+6.9%
29.5
46%
-
54%
2.80 (+180)
(+28.7%)
39.5
36%
-
64%
4.80 (+380)
(+70.5%)
49.5
26%
-
74%
8.00 (+700)
(+110.2%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Freeling (knee) is listed as doubtful against the Eagles on Sunday.
Damien LewisQ
Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Philadelphia.
Jaelan PhillipsQ
Phillips (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Other · 17
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble (ribs) has no injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Darren Waller?
Waller (toe) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Albert Reese IV?
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Chuba Hubbard?
Hubbard rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Tetairoa McMillan?
McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Haynes King?
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Panthers' emergency third quarterback Sunday night versus Detroit.
Lee Hunter?
PHI
Out · 4
Lane JohnsonOUT
out
Jalyx HuntOUT
Hunt (ankle/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against Carolina.
Michael Carter IIOUT
Carter (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Saquon BarkleyOUT
Barkley (hamstring) wasn't spotted at Friday's practice, Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Drew KendallQ
Kendall (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
AJ EpenesaD
Epenesa (back) is doubtful for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Other · 19
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) won't come off injured reserve this weekend and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 6 battle against Carolina.
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Eli Stowers?
The Eagles have downgraded Stowers (quadriceps) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
The Eagles downgraded Calcaterra (back) to out Saturday for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Jaydon Blue?
The Eagles signed Blue off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz is not being elevated from the practice squad for Sunday's matchup against Carolina, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Hurts?
The Eagles placed Hurts (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
E.J. Jenkins?
Hollywood Brown?
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's contest versus the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith?
Smith (hamstring) practiced in full Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game versus the Panthers.
Will Shipley?
The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.
Joe Milton III?
The Eagles are signing Milton off the Cowboys' practice squad, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports.
Marcus Epps?
Epps (groin) practiced fully Thursday.
Tanner McKee?
McKee appears lined up to start Sunday's game against the Panthers after the Eagles announced Wednesday that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Week 6 due to a superficial blood clot on his calf, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jalen Carter?
Carter logged five tackles (three solo), including 2.0 sacks, one pass defense and two forced fumbles during the Eagles' 19-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in London.
Game log
Jaydon Blue · Rushing Yards vs 21.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 21.5
7
0
29
29
64
NYJCARWSHDENNYG
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Jan 4@NYGL64Hit
Oct 26@DENL29Hit
Oct 19vsWSHW29Hit
Oct 12@CARL0Miss
Oct 5@NYJW7Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 21.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
