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5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
56%
Edge
-2.4pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 2.5
DK
1.68
-146
Projection2.8vs2.5(0.3 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
61%
11/18
SZN
61%
11/18
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
-2.4pp
EV
-9.9%
Alpha Score
22
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (13% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 2
AJ DillonOUT
Dillon (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Taylor MotonQ
The Panthers activated Moton (illness) from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday.
Tershawn WhartonQ
The Panthers activated Wharton (neck) from the reserve/PUP list Saturday.
Trevor EtienneQ
The Panthers activated Etienne (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday.
Monroe Freeling
Confidence readOn the fence
53% to hitrange 46-60%price needs 59%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -146 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 2.8 vs line 2.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 56% across 1 book
›Baby line: 2.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 2.5)55.8%
Fair price1.79 · -126
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 11:55 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.76 vs 2.5
5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games18
Current games5
Prior games13
Prior games fetched13
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jalen Carter · Over the number
model projects 2.76
The best move
Buy this over down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 2.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
2push-safe
53%
13%
34%
1.63 (-158) fair
-
2.5now
53%
-
47%
1.68 (-146)
-9.9%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 22?
TOTAL
22/100
Win prob+25.3/ 55
Calibrated win probability 53%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 56% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401872998-JalenCarter-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/18/2026, 3:55:29 AM
2.00
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games18
current_games5
prior_games13
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean2.60
prior_mean2.77
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4685759
season2026
3
40%
13%
47%
2.16 (+116) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 56% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Freeling (knee) is listed as doubtful against the Eagles on Sunday.
Damien LewisQ
Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Philadelphia.
Jaelan PhillipsQ
Phillips (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Other · 17
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble (ribs) has no injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Darren Waller?
Waller (toe) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Albert Reese IV?
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Chuba Hubbard?
Hubbard rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Tetairoa McMillan?
McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Haynes King?
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Panthers' emergency third quarterback Sunday night versus Detroit.
Lee Hunter?
PHI
Out · 4
Lane JohnsonOUT
out
Jalyx HuntOUT
Hunt (ankle/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against Carolina.
Michael Carter IIOUT
Carter (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Saquon BarkleyOUT
Barkley (hamstring) wasn't spotted at Friday's practice, Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Drew KendallQ
Kendall (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
AJ EpenesaD
Epenesa (back) is doubtful for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Other · 19
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) won't come off injured reserve this weekend and has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 6 battle against Carolina.
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Eli Stowers?
The Eagles downgraded Stowers (quadriceps) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
The Eagles downgraded Calcaterra (back) to out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Jaydon Blue?
The Eagles signed Blue off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz is not being elevated from the practice squad for Sunday's matchup against Carolina, Zach Berman of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Hurts?
The Eagles placed Hurts (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
E.J. Jenkins?
Hollywood Brown?
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's contest versus the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith?
Smith (hamstring) practiced in full Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game versus the Panthers.
Will Shipley?
The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.
Joe Milton III?
The Eagles are signing Milton off the Cowboys' practice squad, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports.
Marcus Epps?
Epps (groin) practiced fully Thursday.
Tanner McKee?
McKee appears lined up to start Sunday's game against the Panthers after the Eagles announced Wednesday that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Week 6 due to a superficial blood clot on his calf, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jalen Carter?
Carter logged five tackles (three solo), including 2.0 sacks, one pass defense and two forced fumbles during the Eagles' 19-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in London.
★ RECENT FORM
Jalen Carter · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.6
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.6
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.68 (-146) the price needs 59% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jalen Carter · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 2.5
3
1
3
1
5
WSHTENCHILARJAX
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11@JAXL5Hit
Oct 4vsLARL1Miss
Sep 29@CHIL3Hit
Sep 20@TENW1Miss
Sep 13vsWSHW3Hit
Jan 11vsSFL3Hit
Dec 28@BUFW1Miss
Nov 28vsCHIL4Hit
Nov 23@DALL5Hit
Nov 17vsDETW5Hit
Nov 11@GBW3Hit
Oct 26vsNYGW2Miss
Oct 19@MINW3Hit
Oct 5vsDENL4Hit
Sep 28@TBW1Miss
Sep 21vsLARW3Hit
Sep 14@KCW2Miss
Sep 5vsDALW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 59% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
