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3 games this season, 17 games last season, 43% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
3%
Market %
3%
Edge
+0.1pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
31.00
+3000
Projection0.0vs0.5(0.5 under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
SZN
0%
0/20
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+0.1pp
EV
7.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.06u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 0.25u
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 0% from 0.00 TD per game over 20 games, priced P(yes) 3%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 3% across 6 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)3.4%
Fair price29.63 · +2863
Books de-vigged6
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 6 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.00 vs 0.5
3 games this season, 17 games last season, 43% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games3
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean0
Prior mean0
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
31.00 (+3000)31.00
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
31.00 (+3000)31.00
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
26.00 (+2500)26.00
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 3.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
3% to hitrange 0-15%price needs 3%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +3000 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (583.1% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
22%
-
78%
31.00 (+3000)
(+583.1%)
1
2%
20%
78%
36.31 (+3531) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.25u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.06u
EV %7.4%
Edge %+0.1pp
Card ID: c-401872998-FeleipeFranks-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:44 AM
0.45
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games3
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0
prior_mean0
current_weight0.430
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games20
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0
player_espn_id4034948
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 4
Taylor MotonOUT
Moton (illness) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
AJ DillonOUT
Dillon (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Tershawn WhartonOUT
The Panthers designated Wharton (neck) to return from reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Monroe FreelingD
Freeling (knee) is listed as doubtful against the Eagles on Sunday.
Damien LewisQ
Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Philadelphia.
Jaelan PhillipsQ
Phillips (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Other · 18
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble (ribs) has no injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Trevor Etienne?
Etienne (ankle) is listed as questionablefor Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Darren Waller?
Waller (toe) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
PHI
Out · 4
Jalyx HuntOUT
Hunt (ankle/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against Carolina.
Michael Carter IIOUT
Carter (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Saquon BarkleyOUT
Barkley (hamstring) wasn't spotted at Friday's practice, Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Jalen HurtsOUT
The Eagles have ruled Hurts out for Sunday's game against the Panthers after a follow-up ultrasound performed on his calf Wednesday revealed movement in a small blood clot, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Drew KendallQ
Kendall (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
AJ EpenesaD
Epenesa (back) is doubtful for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Albert Reese IV?
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Chuba Hubbard?
Hubbard rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Tetairoa McMillan?
McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Haynes King?
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Panthers' emergency third quarterback Sunday night versus Detroit.
Lee Hunter?
Other · 19
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against Carolina.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Eli Stowers?
Stowers (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
Calcaterra (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
E.J. Jenkins?
Hollywood Brown?
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's contest versus the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith?
Smith (hamstring) practiced in full Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game versus the Panthers.
Will Shipley?
The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.
Joe Milton III?
The Eagles are signing Milton off the Cowboys' practice squad, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports.
Marcus Epps?
Epps (groin) practiced fully Thursday.
Tanner McKee?
McKee appears lined up to start Sunday's game against the Panthers after the Eagles announced Wednesday that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Week 6 due to a superficial blood clot on his calf, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Eagles on Wednesday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Jalen Carter?
Carter logged five tackles (three solo), including 2.0 sacks, one pass defense and two forced fumbles during the Eagles' 19-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in London.
Jake Elliott?
Elliott made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 19-17 loss to the Jaguars in London.
Makai Lemon?
Lemon caught five of seven targets for 43 yards during Sunday's 19-17 loss to the Jaguars.
★ RECENT FORM
Feleipe Franks · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/3 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/3 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/3 over · avg 0.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 31.00 (+3000) the price needs 3% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Feleipe Franks · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Oct 5vsDETW0Miss
Sep 27@CLEL0Miss
Sep 20@ATLW0Miss
Jan 4vsNOW0Miss
Dec 30vsLARW0Miss
Dec 21@ARIW0Miss
Dec 12@TBW0Miss
Dec 7vsSEAL0Miss
Nov 30@NYJL0Miss
Nov 23@NOW0Miss
Nov 16vsCARL0Miss
Nov 9@INDL0Miss
Nov 2@NEL0Miss
Oct 26vsMIAL0Miss
Oct 20@SFL0Miss
Oct 13vsBUFW0Miss
Sep 28vsWSHW0Miss
Sep 21@CARL0Miss
Sep 15@MINW0Miss
Sep 7vsTBL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 3% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
