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4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
234.5
UNDER
234.5
Our win %
49%
Market %
50%
Edge
-1.5pp
Market
Passing Yards 234.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection278.8vs234.5(44.3 over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
38%
8/21
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=484
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL passing yards over plays: 49% of 484 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.5pp
EV
-9.0%
Alpha Score
15
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Why this card
›Passing Yards projection 278.8 vs line 234.5
›Model read P(over) 65% sits 15pp off the market. Passing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test clears: we are 44.3 off the 234.5 (19% of the line), past both the 17% and the 25 gap this stat needs.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Passing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 49% over 484 graded, of which 243 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.5pp.
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 484 NFL passing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 243 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 234.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 3:52 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line278.80 vs 234.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched17
Current mean317
Prior mean192.60
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
238.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.89 (-112)1.89
FD★ Best
234.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FANATICS
235.5
1.83 (-120)1.83
1.91 (-110)1.91
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
49% to hitrange 39-57%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 234.5 is already the best line on the board (22.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
234
65%
-
34%
1.53 (-190) fair
-
234.5nowbest EV
65%
-
35%
1.88 (-114)
+22.5%
235
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.5pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 89% of the time (mean 1.91 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 48 players quoting player_pass_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CAR
Out · 4
Taylor MotonOUT
Moton (illness) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
AJ DillonOUT
Dillon (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Tershawn WhartonOUT
The Panthers designated Wharton (neck) to return from reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Ikem EkwonuOUT
Coach Dave Canales said Monday that Ekwonu (knee) is still a considerable time away from returning to action, Mike Kaye of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Monroe FreelingD
Freeling (knee) is listed as doubtful against the Eagles on Sunday.
Damien LewisQ
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTCLEARS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-9.0%
Edge %-1.5pp
Card ID: c-401872998-BryceYoung-PASSING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:52:12 AM
Variance103.40
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean317
prior_mean192.60
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games21
player_espn_id4685720
season2026
65%
-
35%
1.53 (-187) fair
-
235.5
65%
-
35%
1.83 (-120)
+19%
238.5
64%
-
36%
1.89 (-112)
+21%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Philadelphia.
Jaelan PhillipsQ
Phillips (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Other · 18
Tommy Tremble?
Tremble (ribs) has no injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Trevor Etienne?
Etienne (ankle) is listed as questionablefor Sunday's game against the Eagles.
Darren Waller?
Waller (toe) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Jonathon Brooks?
Brooks (core) was seen jogging at practice Thursday, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports.
Jalen Coker?
Coker (quadriceps) was listed as a full participant on the Panthers' estimated injury report Wednesday, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.
Cam Jackson?
The Panthers placed Jackson (shoulder) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darin Gantt of the team's official site reports.
Devin Lloyd?
Lloyd recorded nine total tackles (five solo) during Sunday night's 32-26 win against Detroit.
Akayleb Evans?
Evans recorded 11 total tackles (nine solo) and a pass defensed during Sunday night's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne?
Tremayne caught two of three passes for 32 yards during Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
John Metchie III?
Metchie caught three of five targets for 37 yards during the Panthers' 32-26 win over the Lions on Sunday.
Ja'Tavion Sanders?
Albert Reese IV?
Ryan Fitzgerald?
Fitzgerald connected on both of his field-goal tries and two of his four point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Bryce Young?
Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing three times for three yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Chuba Hubbard?
Hubbard rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Tetairoa McMillan?
McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 32-26 win over the Lions.
Haynes King?
King (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Panthers' emergency third quarterback Sunday night versus Detroit.
Lee Hunter?
PHI
Out · 4
Jalyx HuntOUT
Hunt (ankle/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against Carolina.
Michael Carter IIOUT
Carter (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Saquon BarkleyOUT
Barkley (hamstring) wasn't spotted at Friday's practice, Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Jalen HurtsOUT
The Eagles have ruled Hurts out for Sunday's game against the Panthers after a follow-up ultrasound performed on his calf Wednesday revealed movement in a small blood clot, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Drew KendallQ
Kendall (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
AJ EpenesaD
Epenesa (back) is doubtful for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Other · 19
Landon Dickerson?
Dickerson (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against Carolina.
Jonathan Greenard?
Greenard (ankle) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against Carolina.
Eli Stowers?
Stowers (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Grant Calcaterra?
Calcaterra (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Panthers.
Dameon Pierce?
Pierce will be the Eagles' starting running back against the Panthers on Sunday due to the absences of both Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Will Shipley (foot, IR).
Tyler Steen?
E.J. Jenkins?
Hollywood Brown?
Dontayvion Wicks?
Wicks (hamstring) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's contest versus the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith?
★ RECENT FORM
Bryce Young · Passing Yards vs 234.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
4/4 over · avg 317.0
LAST 10
100%
4/4 over · avg 317.0
SEASON
100%
4/4 over · avg 317.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCAR
2-2
L102-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+12.0
HOMEPHI
2-3
L102-3
StreakL3
Home0-0
Run diff-20.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Bryce Young · Passing Yards vs 234.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
100%5/5 over
Oct 5vsDETW329Hit
Sep 27@CLEL291Hit
Sep 20@ATLW287Hit
Sep 13vsCHIL361Hit
Jan 10vsLARL264Hit
Jan 3@TBL266Hit
Dec 28vsSEAL54Miss
Dec 21vsTBW191Miss
Dec 14@NOL163Miss
Nov 30vsLARW206Miss
Nov 25@SFL169Miss
Nov 16@ATLW448Hit
Nov 9vsNOL124Miss
Nov 2@GBW102Miss
Oct 19@NYJW138Miss
Oct 12vsDALW199Miss
Oct 5vsMIAW198Miss
Sep 28@NEL150Miss
Sep 21vsATLW121Miss
Sep 14@ARIL328Hit
Sep 7@JAXL154Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 234.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL passing yards over) hit 49.0% over 484 graded cards, 482 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Smith (hamstring) practiced in full Friday and doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game versus the Panthers.
Will Shipley?
The Eagles placed Shipley (foot) on injured reserve Friday.
Joe Milton III?
The Eagles are signing Milton off the Cowboys' practice squad, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports.
Marcus Epps?
Epps (groin) practiced fully Thursday.
Tanner McKee?
McKee appears lined up to start Sunday's game against the Panthers after the Eagles announced Wednesday that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for Week 6 due to a superficial blood clot on his calf, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
Jakorian Bennett?
Bennett (knee) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Eagles on Wednesday.
Zach Ertz?
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Jalen Carter?
Carter logged five tackles (three solo), including 2.0 sacks, one pass defense and two forced fumbles during the Eagles' 19-17 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in London.
Jake Elliott?
Elliott made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 19-17 loss to the Jaguars in London.
Makai Lemon?
Lemon caught five of seven targets for 43 yards during Sunday's 19-17 loss to the Jaguars.
