Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
19.5
UNDER
19.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.8pp
Market
Receiving Yards 19.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection40.4vs19.5(20.9 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
44%
8/18
SZN
44%
8/18
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.8pp
EV
-11.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on Bateman
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 39.5 at 3.75 (+275) (+90.7% EV)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 39-54%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 40.4 vs line 19.5
›Model read P(over) 69% sits 19pp off the market. Receiving Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: a 19.5 line on Receiving Yards sits below where the model has a read. Opportunity bet, not a priced edge.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 19.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 19.5)49.9%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/18, 4:46 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line40.40 vs 19.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched13
Current mean46.60
Prior mean17.20
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Rashod Bateman · Over the number
model projects 40.4
The best move
Best value is the 39.5 at 3.75 (+275) (90.7% EV) - a better number than the 19.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9.5tighten
76%
-
24%
1.31 (-320)
+0.3%
14.5
73%
-
27%
1.56 (-178)
+13.7%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+6.4/ 55
Calibrated win probability 47%
Market+-0.3/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (50% our side)
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401872997-RashodBateman-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/18/2026, 8:46:34 AM
Variance34.90
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean46.60
prior_mean17.20
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games18
player_espn_id4360939
season2026
19
69%
1%
30%
1.44 (-227) fair
-
19.5now
69%
-
31%
1.88 (-113)
+29.8%
20
68%
1%
31%
1.46 (-219) fair
-
20.5
68%
-
32%
1.88 (-113)
+28.3%
24.5
65%
-
35%
2.13 (+113)
+37.7%
29.5
60%
-
40%
2.60 (+160)
+56.5%
39.5best EV
51%
-
49%
3.75 (+275)
+90.7%
49.5
41%
-
59%
5.30 (+430)
(+119.6%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Rashod Bateman · Receiving Yards vs 19.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 46.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 46.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 46.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Game log
Rashod Bateman · Receiving Yards vs 19.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 19.5
0
88
37
46
62
INDNODALTENATL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 12@ATLW62Hit
Oct 4vsTENW46Hit
Sep 27@DALW37Hit
Sep 20vsNOL88Hit
Sep 13@INDW0Miss
Dec 28@GBW7Miss
Dec 22vsNEL0Miss
Dec 7vsPITL23Hit
Nov 28vsCINL0Miss
Nov 9@MINW10Miss
Oct 31@MIAW13Miss
Oct 26vsCHIW51Hit
Oct 12vsLARL8Miss
Oct 5vsHOUL0Miss
Sep 28@KCL24Hit
Sep 23vsDETL63Hit
Sep 14vsCLEW15Miss
Sep 8@BUFL10Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 19.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BAL
Out · 4
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
Washington (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Cam JurgensOUT
Jurgens (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Matt HibnerOUT
Hibner (hand) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Lamar JacksonOUT
Jackson (ankle) isn't practicing Friday, making him unlikely to play Sunday at Cleveland, according to Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Ja'Kobi LaneQ
Lane (wrist) was activated from injured reserve by Baltimore on Saturday.
Emery Jones Jr.Q
questionable
Andrew VorheesQ
questionable
Other · 18
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten?
Marlon Humphrey?
CLE
Out · 2
Teven JenkinsOUT
Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
Hall (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Carson SchwesingerQ
Schwesinger (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mason GrahamQ
Graham (knee/ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Quinshon JudkinsQ
Judkins (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Other · 19
Trey Hendrickson
?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Elijah Sarratt?
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Ronnie Stanley?
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Grant Delpit?
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
