Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
15%
Market %
15%
Edge
+0.1pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
6.50
+550
Projection0.1vs0.5(0.4 under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
17%
3/18
SZN
17%
3/18
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+0.1pp
EV
-2.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on Bateman
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 13% from 0.14 TD per game over 18 games, priced P(yes) 15%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.4 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 15% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)15.0%
Fair price6.67 · +567
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 3:08 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.13 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games13
Prior games fetched13
Current mean0.200
Prior mean0.154
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
6.50 (+550)6.50
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
6.50 (+550)6.50
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
6.25 (+525)6.25
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 15.4%
Confidence readOn the fence
15% to hitrange 11-20%price needs 15%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +550 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (74.8% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
27%
-
73%
6.50 (+550)
(+74.8%)
1
2%
24%
73%
30.51 (+2951) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BAL
Out · 4
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
Washington (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Cam JurgensOUT
Jurgens (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Matt HibnerOUT
Hibner (hand) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Lamar JacksonOUT
Jackson (ankle) isn't practicing Friday, making him unlikely to play Sunday at Cleveland, according to Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Emery Jones Jr.Q
questionable
Andrew VorheesQ
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-2.1%
Edge %+0.1pp
Card ID: c-401872997-RashodBateman-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 7:08:45 AM
0.39
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games13
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean0.200
prior_mean0.154
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games18
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.135
player_espn_id4360939
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
questionable
Other · 19
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Ja'Kobi Lane?
Lane (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten?
Marlon Humphrey?
Trey Hendrickson?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Elijah Sarratt?
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Ronnie Stanley?
CLE
Out · 2
Teven JenkinsOUT
Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
Hall (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Carson SchwesingerQ
Schwesinger (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mason GrahamQ
Graham (knee/ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Quinshon JudkinsQ
Judkins (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Other · 19
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Grant Delpit?
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
★ RECENT FORM
Rashod Bateman · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
LAST 10
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
SEASON
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 6.50 (+550) the price needs 15% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBAL
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Road0-0
Run diff+27.0
HOMECLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-19.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Rashod Bateman · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 12@ATLW0Miss
Oct 4vsTENW0Miss
Sep 27@DALW0Miss
Sep 20vsNOL1Hit
Sep 13@INDW0Miss
Dec 28@GBW0Miss
Dec 22vsNEL0Miss
Dec 7vsPITL0Miss
Nov 28vsCINL0Miss
Nov 9@MINW0Miss
Oct 31@MIAW1Hit
Oct 26vsCHIW0Miss
Oct 12vsLARL0Miss
Oct 5vsHOUL0Miss
Sep 28@KCL0Miss
Sep 23vsDETL1Hit
Sep 14vsCLEW0Miss
Sep 8@BUFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 15% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
