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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
WATCH
◇⊘
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
Our win %
59%
Market %
54%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 4.5
DK
1.75
-133
Projection6.0vs4.5(1.5 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
64%
14/22
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
2.8%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
0.93u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 3.72u
◆Best lineBuy down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (10% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 3 of 8 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 8 lose together 0.1% to 27.7% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
59% to hitrange 50-66%price needs 57%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -133 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 6.0 vs line 4.5
›Model read P(over) 68% sits 15pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 54% across 2 books
›Same-game cap: read 3 of 8 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 8 lose together somewhere between 0.1% and 27.7% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 4.5)53.7%
Fair price1.86 · -116
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 10:02 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.03 vs 4.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Malaki Starks · Over the number
model projects 6.03
The best move
Buy this over down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake instead of losing (10% of outcomes), same win chance as the 4.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4push-safe
68%
10%
22%
1.32 (-314) fair
-
4.5nowbest EV
68%
-
32%
1.75 (-133)
+19.9%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+41/ 55
Calibrated win probability 59%
Market+11/ 15
Market consensus 54% on our side
Price+7/ 15
2.8% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 59; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
4.5
1.75 (-133)1.75
2.03 (+103)2.03
DK implied, with vig (this side): 57.1%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierWATCH
Kelly fraction (full)3.72u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.93u
EV %2.8%
Edge %+5.0pp
★ RECENT FORM
Malaki Starks · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 6.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 6.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 6.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.75 (-133) the price needs 57% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BAL
Out · 4
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
Washington (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Cam JurgensOUT
Jurgens (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Matt HibnerOUT
Hibner (hand) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Lamar JacksonOUT
Jackson (ankle) isn't practicing Friday, making him unlikely to play Sunday at Cleveland, according to Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Ja'Kobi LaneQ
Lane (wrist) was activated from injured reserve by Baltimore on Saturday.
Emery Jones Jr.Q
questionable
Andrew VorheesQ
questionable
Other · 18ShowHide
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten?
CLE
Out · 2
Teven JenkinsOUT
Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
Hall (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Carson SchwesingerQ
Schwesinger, who is listed as questionable for Sunday's contest against the Ravens, will go through a pregame workout before the Browns make a call on his status, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Mason GrahamQ
Graham (knee/ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, isn't expected to play, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Quinshon JudkinsQ
Judkins (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's contest against the Ravens, will go through a pregame workout before his status is determined, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Marlon Humphrey
?
Trey Hendrickson?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Elijah Sarratt?
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Ronnie Stanley?
Other · 19ShowHide
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Grant Delpit?
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBAL
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Road0-0
Run diff+27.0
HOMECLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-19.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Malaki Starks · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 4.5
7
4
6
6
10
INDNODALTENATL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 12@ATLW10Hit
Oct 4vsTENW6Hit
Sep 27@DALW6Hit
Sep 20vsNOL4Miss
Sep 13@INDW7Hit
Jan 5@PITL2Miss
Dec 28@GBW5Hit
Dec 22vsNEL3Miss
Dec 14@CINW5Hit
Dec 7vsPITL4Miss
Nov 28vsCINL6Hit
Nov 23vsNYJW4Miss
Nov 16@CLEW2Miss
Nov 9@MINW4Miss
Oct 31@MIAW5Hit
Oct 26vsCHIW5Hit
Oct 12vsLARL5Hit
Oct 5vsHOUL10Hit
Sep 28@KCL2Miss
Sep 23vsDETL8Hit
Sep 14vsCLEW7Hit
Sep 8@BUFL7Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 4.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 57% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
