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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
11.5
UNDER
11.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
51%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 11.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection25.6vs11.5(14.1 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
33%
5/15
SZN
33%
5/15
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-9.8%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-6 on Hill
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 25.6 vs line 11.5
›Model read P(over) 65% sits 14pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: a 11.5 line on Rushing Yards sits below where the model has a read. Opportunity bet, not a priced edge.
›Prop market fair P(over) 51% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: 11.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 11.5)50.6%
Fair price1.98 · -102
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line25.60 vs 11.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched10
Current mean26.60
Prior mean9.30
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
12.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.89 (-112)1.89
FD★ Best
11.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
48% to hitrange 41-55%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 11.5 is already the best line on the board (21.3% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
11
65%
1%
34%
1.53 (-188) fair
-
11.5nowbest EV
65%
-
35%
1.88 (-114)
+21.3%
12
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BAL
Out · 4
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
Washington (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Cam JurgensOUT
Jurgens (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Matt HibnerOUT
Hibner (hand) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Lamar JacksonOUT
Jackson (ankle) isn't practicing Friday, making him unlikely to play Sunday at Cleveland, according to Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Emery Jones Jr.Q
questionable
Andrew VorheesQ
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-9.8%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401872997-JusticeHill-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:42 AM
Variance26.20
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched10
current_mean26.60
prior_mean9.30
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games15
player_espn_id4038441
season2026
64%
1%
35%
1.56 (-180) fair
-
12.5
64%
-
36%
1.89 (-112)
+20.4%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
questionable
Other · 19
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Ja'Kobi Lane?
Lane (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten?
Marlon Humphrey?
Trey Hendrickson?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Elijah Sarratt?
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Ronnie Stanley?
CLE
Out · 2
Teven JenkinsOUT
Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
Hall (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Carson SchwesingerQ
Schwesinger (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mason GrahamQ
Graham (knee/ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Quinshon JudkinsQ
Judkins (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Other · 19
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Grant Delpit?
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
★ RECENT FORM
Justice Hill · Rushing Yards vs 11.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 26.6
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 26.6
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 26.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBAL
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Road0-0
Run diff+27.0
HOMECLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-19.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Justice Hill · Rushing Yards vs 11.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 12@ATLW73Hit
Oct 4vsTENW3Miss
Sep 27@DALW33Hit
Sep 20vsNOL6Miss
Sep 13@INDW18Hit
Nov 23vsNYJW0Miss
Nov 9@MINW1Miss
Oct 31@MIAW2Miss
Oct 26vsCHIW2Miss
Oct 12vsLARL16Hit
Oct 5vsHOUL3Miss
Sep 28@KCL76Hit
Sep 23vsDETL0Miss
Sep 14vsCLEW7Miss
Sep 8@BUFL-14Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 11.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
