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5 games this season, 20 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
Our win %
58%
Market %
55%
Edge
+3.3pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 3.5
DK
1.72
-139
Projection2.9vs3.5(0.6 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
SZN
64%
16/25
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+3.3pp
EV
-0.4%
Alpha Score
43
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (12% push)
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 2.9 vs line 3.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 55% across 1 book
›Baby line: 3.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 3.5)54.6%
Fair price2.20 · +120
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 4:10 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.90 vs 3.5
5 games this season, 20 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games25
Current games5
Prior games20
Prior games fetched20
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
3.5
2.07 (+107)2.07
1.72 (-139)1.72
DK implied, with vig (this side): 58.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
58% to hitrange 52-64%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -139 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 55% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
questionable
Other · 19
Ja'Kobi Lane?
Lane (wrist) is "good to go" after practicing fully this week and is expected to be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten?
Marlon Humphrey?
Trey Hendrickson?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Elijah Sarratt?
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Ronnie Stanley?
CLE
Out · 2
Teven JenkinsOUT
Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
Hall (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Carson SchwesingerQ
Schwesinger (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mason GrahamQ
Graham (knee/ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Quinshon JudkinsQ
Judkins (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Baltimore, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Other · 19
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Grant Delpit?
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBAL
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Road0-0
Run diff+27.0
HOMECLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-19.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Jared Verse · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 2.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 2.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 2.6
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.72 (-139) the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jared Verse · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11@NYJL3Hit
Oct 2vsPITW2Hit
Sep 27vsCARW3Hit
Sep 20@TBW1Hit
Sep 13@JAXL4Miss
Jan 25@SEAL3Hit
Jan 18@CHIW3Hit
Jan 10@CARW1Hit
Jan 4vsARIW3Hit
Dec 30@ATLL6Miss
Dec 19@SEAL4Miss
Dec 14vsDETW1Hit
Dec 7@ARIW1Hit
Nov 30@CARL4Miss
Nov 24vsTBW4Miss
Nov 16vsSEAW3Hit
Nov 9@SFW1Hit
Nov 2vsNOW1Hit
Oct 19@JAXW2Hit
Oct 12@BALW6Miss
Oct 3vsSFL6Miss
Sep 28vsINDW5Miss
Sep 21@PHIL6Miss
Sep 14@TENW2Hit
Sep 7vsHOUW3Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
