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Jaleel McLaughlin · Rush + Rec Yards · Bet Data Labs
Rush + Rec Yards 51.5 · CLE · vs BAL · Ravens at Browns
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
51.5
UNDER
51.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 51.5
DK
1.89
-112
Projection12.9vs51.5(38.6 under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
93%
13/14
SZN
93%
13/14
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.7%
Alpha Score
5
Recommended
1.04u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.16u
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 51-58%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -112 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 12.9 vs line 51.5
›Model read P(under) 82% sits 32pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Injury kill: CLE has 7 OUT
›Opponent BAL missing 8, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ CLE has 7 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 51.5)49.8%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line12.86 vs 51.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games14
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched10
›All model inputs (19)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jaleel McLaughlin · Under the number
model projects 12.86
The best move
The 51.5 is already the best line on the board (55.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
24.5
61%
-
39%
1.63 (-158) fair
-
39.5
74%
-
26%
1.35 (-287) fair
-
49.5
81%
-
19%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 5?
TOTAL
5/100
Win prob+29.4/ 55
Calibrated win probability 55%
Market+-0.6/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (50% our side)
Price+9.3/ 15
3.7% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 38; published as 5 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
51.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.89 (-112)1.89
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.8%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.16u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.04u
EV %3.7%
Edge %+5.0pp
★ RECENT FORM
Jaleel McLaughlin · Rush + Rec Yards vs 51.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
4/4 under · avg 7.8
LAST 10
100%
4/4 under · avg 7.8
SEASON
100%
4/4 under · avg 7.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.89 (-112) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jaleel McLaughlin · Rush + Rec Yards vs 51.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Line 51.5
13
3
0
28
0
NETBCARPITNYJ
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11@NYJL0Hit
Oct 2vsPITW28Hit
Sep 27vsCARW0Hit
Sep 20@TBW3Hit
Jan 25vsNEL13Hit
Jan 17vsBUFW21Hit
Jan 4vsLACW58Miss
Dec 26@KCW40Hit
Dec 21vsJAXL37Hit
Dec 14vsGBW4Hit
Dec 7@LVW31Hit
Dec 1@WSHW30Hit
Nov 16vsKCW14Hit
Oct 12@NYJW0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 51.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBAL
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Road0-0
Run diff+27.0
HOMECLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-19.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BAL
Out · 7
Andrew VorheesOUT
Vorhees (foot) is listed as inactive for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Elijah SarrattOUT
Sarratt (coach's decision) is listed as inactive for Sunday's game against the Browns.
K'Von WallaceOUT
inactive
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
inactive
Cam JurgensOUT
inactive
Matt HibnerOUT
inactive
Lamar JacksonOUT
inactive
Other · 18ShowHide
Ja'Kobi Lane?
Lane (wrist) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Emery Jones Jr.?
Tyler Huntley?
Huntley will be the Ravens' starting QB against the Browns on Sunday after Lamar Jackson (ankle) was ruled out, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.
Rashod Bateman?
Bateman (shoulder) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Cleveland.
John Simpson?
Teddye Buchanan?
Trenton Simpson?
Mike Green?
Zay Flowers?
Flowers (toe) has been cleared to play in Sunday's game at Cleveland.
Nick Vannett?
Vannett (knee) practiced in full Thursday.
Roger Rosengarten
CLE
Out · 8
Grant DelpitOUT
out
Taylen GreenOUT
Green (coach's decision) is listed as inactive but will serve as the Browns' emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Kelsey Russo of the Browns' official site r eports.
Mason GrahamOUT
Graham (knee/ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Quinshon JudkinsOUT
Judkins (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Mike Hall Jr.OUT
inactive
Noah IgbinogheneOUT
inactive
Teven JenkinsOUT
inactive
Parker BrailsfordOUT
inactive
?
Marlon Humphrey?
Trey Hendrickson?
Hendrickson (finger) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Justice Hill?
Hill turned four carries into 73 yards and caught two of four targets for five yards during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Aeneas Peebles?
Tyler Loop?
Loop went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Ravens' 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Mark Andrews?
Andrews caught four of six targets for 28 yards and lost a fumble in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons.
Derrick Henry?
Henry rushed 24 times for 102 yards while catching one of two targets for an 18-yard touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime win over the Falcons. He also ran in a two-point conversion.
Other · 17ShowHide
Jaleel McLaughlin?
McLaughlin was the first running back to take reps during pregame warmups and appears likely to draw the start Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Carson Schwesinger?
Schwesinger (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Derek Barnett?
Tytus Howard?
Howard (knee) does not have an injury designation against Baltimore on Sunday.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Tylan Wallace?
Wallace (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Baltimore.
Carsen Ryan?
Ryan (calf) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Maliek Collins?
Denzel Boston?
KC Concepcion?
Concepcion has cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday against the Ravens, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) won't be activated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's contest against the Ravens, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
Elgton Jenkins?
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
