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5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
14.5
UNDER
14.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-3.1pp
Market
Receiving Yards 14.5
DK
1.89
-112
Projection11.4vs14.5(3.1 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
SZN
65%
15/23
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=1646
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards under plays: 49% of 1646 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-3.1pp
EV
-10.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-8 on Marks
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 11.4 vs line 14.5
›Edge test fails: 21% looks big, but the actual gap is only 3.1 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~56% have hit 49% over 1646 graded, of which 825 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
›Baby line: 14.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1646 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 56% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 825 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 14.5)50.2%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 1:21 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line11.40 vs 14.5
5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games18
Prior games fetched18
Current mean10.80
Prior mean12.60
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
14.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.89 (-112)1.89
FD
14.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.8%
Confidence readPrice too short
47% to hitrange 43-51%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -112 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 14.5 is already the best line on the board (1.9% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
14
53%
1%
46%
1.88 (-114) fair
-
14.5nowbest EV
54%
-
46%
1.89 (-112)
+1.9%
15
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
HOU
Out · 2
Jalen PitreOUT
Pitre (shoulder) is ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville.
David MontgomeryOUT
The Texans ruled Montgomery (groin) out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Other · 23
Jake Hansen?
Azeez Al-Shaair?
Henry To'oTo'o?
To'oTo'o (shoulder) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Tank Dell?
The Texans ruled out Dell (knee) for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Trent Brown
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-10.9%
Edge %-3.1pp
Card ID: c-401872996-WoodyMarks-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 5:21:10 AM
20.00
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games18
prior_games_fetched18
current_mean10.80
prior_mean12.60
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games23
player_espn_id4429059
season2026
54%
1%
45%
1.83 (-120) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
?
Jadeveon Clowney?
Ja'Marcus Ingram?
The Texans opened Ingram's 21-day return window from injured reserve Wednesday.
Braden Smith?
The Texans activated Smith (foot) from their injured reserve list Wednesday.
Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed Wednesday that Harrison will make his team debut Sunday versus the Jaguars in London, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Woody Marks?
Marks is expected to handle a lead role out of the backfield during Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London after Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced Monday that fellow running back David Montgomery (groin) is viewed as week-to-week, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Kayshon Boutte?
Boutte caught three of five targets for 38 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Marlin Klein?
Febechi Nwaiwu?
Aiden Fisher?
Collin Wright?
Sabastian Harsh?
Chris Braswell?
Nate Thomas?
Ka'imi Fairbairn?
Fairbairn converted on all six of his kicks (four field goals, two extra points) during the Texans' 26-3 win over the Titans on Sunday.
Dalton Schultz?
Schultz caught three of four targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Xavier Hutchinson?
Hutchinson caught four of five targets for 65 yards in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Jaylin Noel?
Noel caught all five of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 26-3 win over Tennessee.
C.J. Stroud?
Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans. He added five rushing yards and a TD on six carries.
JAX
Out · 2
Ross MatiscikOUT
Matiscik (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.
Montaric BrownOUT
Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Other · 23
Eric Murray?
Murray (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Nate Boerkircher?
Boerkircher (back) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Cole Van Lanen?
Emmanuel Pregnon?
Jarrian Jones?
Jourdan Lewis?
Travis Hunter?
Hunter recorded a nine-yard reception and tallied six tackles and a pass breakup in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles in London.
Josh Cameron?
Cameron caught three of six targets for 43 yards during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London. He also returned one kickoff for 18 yards and added a tackle on special teams.
Anton Harrison?
Harrison is slated to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week and could be out for 3-to-5 weeks or 3-to-4 months, depending on what surgeons find while performing the procedure, Michael DiRocco and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.
Albert Regis?
Wesley Williams?
CJ Williams?
Daniel Faalele?
Alijah Huzzie?
Cam Little?
Little made both of his field goals and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London.
Jakobi Meyers?
Meyers caught two of three targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 19-17 win against the Eagles.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.?
Rodriguez rushed twice for five yards and caught his only target for six yards during Sunday's 19-17 win over Philadelphia.
Brian Thomas Jr.?
Thomas failed to catch any of his three targets in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Brenton Strange?
Strange caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence?
Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles. He added 25 rushing yards on three carries.
Bhayshul Tuten?
Tuten carried the ball 22 times for 72 yards and caught two of three targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Parker Washington?
Washington caught six of nine targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Bryan Thomas Jr.?
Thomas was ejected from Sunday's game in London after receiving an unnecessary roughness penalty for fighting with the Eagles' Jeremiah Trotter following the opening kickoff, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYHOU
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-2.0
HOMEJAX
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Home0-0
Run diff+53.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards under) hit 48.8% over 1,646 graded cards, 1,642 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Woody Marks · Receiving Yards vs 14.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 10.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 10.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 10.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.89 (-112) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Woody Marks · Receiving Yards vs 14.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 11@TENW23Miss
Oct 4vsDALL0Hit
Sep 27@INDL6Hit
Sep 20vsCINL27Miss
Sep 13vsBUFL-2Hit
Jan 18@NEL19Miss
Jan 13@PITW0Hit
Jan 4vsINDW0Hit
Dec 27@LACW4Hit
Dec 14vsARIW8Hit
Dec 8@KCW8Hit
Nov 30@INDW3Hit
Nov 21vsBUFW-5Hit
Nov 16@TENW7Hit
Nov 9vsJAXW18Miss
Nov 2vsDENL0Hit
Oct 26vsSFW49Miss
Oct 21@SEAL20Miss
Oct 5@BALW0Hit
Sep 28vsTENW50Miss
Sep 21@JAXL9Hit
Sep 15vsTBL37Miss
Sep 7@LARL0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 14.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
