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5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
45%
Market %
40%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Passing TDs 1.5
DK
2.47
+147
Projection1.9vs1.5(0.4 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
52%
12/23
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
12.2%
Alpha Score
6
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 8-8 on LawrenceK 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (19% push)
Why this card
›Passing TDs projection 1.9 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(over) 59% sits 18pp off the market. Passing TDs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 27% looks big, but the actual gap is only 0.4 and Passing TDs needs 0.5 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 40% across 5 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 1.5)40.4%
Fair price2.47 · +147
Books de-vigged5
Pulled10/17, 12:49 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 5 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.90 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
PropPASS_TDS
Games23
Current games5
Prior games18
›All model inputs (19)
Variance1.65
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
2.47 (+147)2.47
1.53 (-189)1.53
FD
1.5
2.16 (+116)2.16
1.63 (-158)1.63
DK implied, with vig (this side): 40.5%
Confidence readOn the fence
45% to hitrange 34-56%price needs 40%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +147 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (19% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1push-safe
59%
19%
23%
1.38 (-260) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
59%
-
41%
2.47 (+147)
+45%
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
HOU
Out · 2
Jalen PitreOUT
Pitre (shoulder) is ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville.
David MontgomeryOUT
The Texans ruled Montgomery (groin) out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Other · 23
Jake Hansen?
Azeez Al-Shaair?
Henry To'oTo'o?
To'oTo'o (shoulder) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Tank Dell?
The Texans ruled out Dell (knee) for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Trent Brown
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)5.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.25u
EV %12.2%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401872996-TrevorLawrence-PASS_TDSPublished 10/17/2026, 4:49:12 AM
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propPASS_TDS
games23
current_games5
prior_games18
prior_games_fetched18
current_mean2
prior_mean1.78
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor0.800
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4360310
season2026
2
37%
22%
41%
2.11 (+111) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 41% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
?
Jadeveon Clowney?
Ja'Marcus Ingram?
The Texans opened Ingram's 21-day return window from injured reserve Wednesday.
Braden Smith?
The Texans activated Smith (foot) from their injured reserve list Wednesday.
Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed Wednesday that Harrison will make his team debut Sunday versus the Jaguars in London, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Woody Marks?
Marks is expected to handle a lead role out of the backfield during Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London after Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced Monday that fellow running back David Montgomery (groin) is viewed as week-to-week, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Kayshon Boutte?
Boutte caught three of five targets for 38 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Marlin Klein?
Febechi Nwaiwu?
Aiden Fisher?
Collin Wright?
Sabastian Harsh?
Chris Braswell?
Nate Thomas?
Ka'imi Fairbairn?
Fairbairn converted on all six of his kicks (four field goals, two extra points) during the Texans' 26-3 win over the Titans on Sunday.
Dalton Schultz?
Schultz caught three of four targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Xavier Hutchinson?
Hutchinson caught four of five targets for 65 yards in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Jaylin Noel?
Noel caught all five of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 26-3 win over Tennessee.
C.J. Stroud?
Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans. He added five rushing yards and a TD on six carries.
JAX
Out · 2
Ross MatiscikOUT
Matiscik (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.
Montaric BrownOUT
Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Other · 23
Eric Murray?
Murray (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Nate Boerkircher?
Boerkircher (back) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Cole Van Lanen?
Emmanuel Pregnon?
Jarrian Jones?
Jourdan Lewis?
Travis Hunter?
Hunter recorded a nine-yard reception and tallied six tackles and a pass breakup in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles in London.
Josh Cameron?
Cameron caught three of six targets for 43 yards during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London. He also returned one kickoff for 18 yards and added a tackle on special teams.
Anton Harrison?
Harrison is slated to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week and could be out for 3-to-5 weeks or 3-to-4 months, depending on what surgeons find while performing the procedure, Michael DiRocco and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.
Albert Regis?
Wesley Williams?
CJ Williams?
Daniel Faalele?
Alijah Huzzie?
Cam Little?
Little made both of his field goals and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London.
Jakobi Meyers?
Meyers caught two of three targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 19-17 win against the Eagles.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.?
Rodriguez rushed twice for five yards and caught his only target for six yards during Sunday's 19-17 win over Philadelphia.
Brian Thomas Jr.?
Thomas failed to catch any of his three targets in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Brenton Strange?
Strange caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence?
Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles. He added 25 rushing yards on three carries.
Bhayshul Tuten?
Tuten carried the ball 22 times for 72 yards and caught two of three targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Parker Washington?
Washington caught six of nine targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Bryan Thomas Jr.?
Thomas was ejected from Sunday's game in London after receiving an unnecessary roughness penalty for fighting with the Eagles' Jeremiah Trotter following the opening kickoff, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Trevor Lawrence · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.0
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.0
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.47 (+147) the price needs 40% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYHOU
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-2.0
HOMEJAX
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Home0-0
Run diff+53.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Trevor Lawrence · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsPHIW2Hit
Oct 4@CINW1Miss
Sep 27vsNEW3Hit
Sep 20@DENL0Miss
Sep 13vsCLEW4Hit
Jan 11vsBUFL3Hit
Jan 4vsTENW3Hit
Dec 28@INDW0Miss
Dec 21@DENW3Hit
Dec 14vsNYJW5Hit
Dec 7vsINDW2Hit
Nov 30@TENW2Hit
Nov 23@ARIW3Hit
Nov 16vsLACW1Miss
Nov 9@HOUL1Miss
Nov 2@LVW0Miss
Oct 19vsLARL1Miss
Oct 12vsSEAL2Hit
Oct 7vsKCW1Miss
Sep 28@SFW1Miss
Sep 21vsHOUW0Miss
Sep 14@CINL3Hit
Sep 7vsCARW1Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 40% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
