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5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
22.5
UNDER
22.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Completions 22.5
DK
1.88
-113
Projection21.3vs22.5(1.2 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
62%
13/21
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
4.3%
Alpha Score
43
Recommended
1.22u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 12-2 on StroudK 4.87u
◆Best lineBuy up to 23: an exact 23 returns your stake (6% push)
Why this card
›Completions projection 21.3 vs line 22.5
›Model read P(under) 57% sits 7pp off the market. Completions has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 3 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 22.5)50.3%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 12:49 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line21.32 vs 22.5
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games5
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
›All model inputs (19)
Variance5.10
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
22.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.88 (-113)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 46-64%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 23: an exact 23 returns your stake instead of losing (6% of outcomes), same win chance as the 22.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
22
51%
6%
43%
1.84 (-119) fair
-
22.5nowbest EV
57%
-
43%
1.88 (-113)
+7.4%
23
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
HOU
Out · 2
Jalen PitreOUT
Pitre (shoulder) is ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville.
David MontgomeryOUT
The Texans ruled Montgomery (groin) out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Other · 23
Jake Hansen?
Azeez Al-Shaair?
Henry To'oTo'o?
To'oTo'o (shoulder) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Tank Dell?
The Texans ruled out Dell (knee) for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Trent Brown
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.87u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.22u
EV %4.3%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401872996-C.J.Stroud-PASS_COMPLETIONSPublished 10/17/2026, 4:49:12 AM
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propPASS_COMPLETIONS
games21
current_games5
prior_games16
prior_games_fetched16
current_mean23.80
prior_mean19.63
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor4
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4432577
season2026
push-safe
57%
6%
37%
1.65 (-153) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
?
Jadeveon Clowney?
Ja'Marcus Ingram?
The Texans opened Ingram's 21-day return window from injured reserve Wednesday.
Braden Smith?
The Texans activated Smith (foot) from their injured reserve list Wednesday.
Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed Wednesday that Harrison will make his team debut Sunday versus the Jaguars in London, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Woody Marks?
Marks is expected to handle a lead role out of the backfield during Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London after Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced Monday that fellow running back David Montgomery (groin) is viewed as week-to-week, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Kayshon Boutte?
Boutte caught three of five targets for 38 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Marlin Klein?
Febechi Nwaiwu?
Aiden Fisher?
Collin Wright?
Sabastian Harsh?
Chris Braswell?
Nate Thomas?
Ka'imi Fairbairn?
Fairbairn converted on all six of his kicks (four field goals, two extra points) during the Texans' 26-3 win over the Titans on Sunday.
Dalton Schultz?
Schultz caught three of four targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Xavier Hutchinson?
Hutchinson caught four of five targets for 65 yards in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Jaylin Noel?
Noel caught all five of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 26-3 win over Tennessee.
C.J. Stroud?
Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans. He added five rushing yards and a TD on six carries.
JAX
Out · 2
Ross MatiscikOUT
Matiscik (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.
Montaric BrownOUT
Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Other · 23
Eric Murray?
Murray (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Nate Boerkircher?
Boerkircher (back) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Cole Van Lanen?
Emmanuel Pregnon?
Jarrian Jones?
Jourdan Lewis?
Travis Hunter?
Hunter recorded a nine-yard reception and tallied six tackles and a pass breakup in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles in London.
Josh Cameron?
Cameron caught three of six targets for 43 yards during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London. He also returned one kickoff for 18 yards and added a tackle on special teams.
Anton Harrison?
Harrison is slated to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week and could be out for 3-to-5 weeks or 3-to-4 months, depending on what surgeons find while performing the procedure, Michael DiRocco and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.
Albert Regis?
Wesley Williams?
CJ Williams?
Daniel Faalele?
Alijah Huzzie?
Cam Little?
Little made both of his field goals and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London.
Jakobi Meyers?
Meyers caught two of three targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 19-17 win against the Eagles.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.?
Rodriguez rushed twice for five yards and caught his only target for six yards during Sunday's 19-17 win over Philadelphia.
Brian Thomas Jr.?
Thomas failed to catch any of his three targets in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Brenton Strange?
Strange caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence?
Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles. He added 25 rushing yards on three carries.
Bhayshul Tuten?
Tuten carried the ball 22 times for 72 yards and caught two of three targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Parker Washington?
Washington caught six of nine targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Bryan Thomas Jr.?
Thomas was ejected from Sunday's game in London after receiving an unnecessary roughness penalty for fighting with the Eagles' Jeremiah Trotter following the opening kickoff, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
★ RECENT FORM
C.J. Stroud · Completions vs 22.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 23.8
LAST 10
40%
2/5 under · avg 23.8
SEASON
40%
2/5 under · avg 23.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYHOU
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-2.0
HOMEJAX
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Home0-0
Run diff+53.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
C.J. Stroud · Completions vs 22.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Oct 11@TENW26Miss
Oct 4vsDALL21Hit
Sep 27@INDL16Hit
Sep 20vsCINL30Miss
Sep 13vsBUFL26Miss
Jan 18@NEL20Hit
Jan 13@PITW21Hit
Jan 4vsINDW14Hit
Dec 27@LACW16Hit
Dec 21vsLVW23Miss
Dec 14vsARIW22Hit
Dec 8@KCW15Hit
Nov 30@INDW22Hit
Nov 2vsDENL6Hit
Oct 26vsSFW30Miss
Oct 21@SEAL23Miss
Oct 5@BALW23Miss
Sep 28vsTENW22Hit
Sep 21@JAXL25Miss
Sep 15vsTBL13Hit
Sep 7@LARL19Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 22.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
