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5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
36%
Market %
36%
Edge
-0.6pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
FD
2.45
+145
Projection0.3vs0.5(0.2 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
43%
9/21
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-0.6pp
EV
-12.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-10 on Tuten
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 33% from 0.40 TD per game over 21 games, priced P(yes) 36%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 36% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)36.2%
Fair price2.76 · +176
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 1:21 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.33 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
Current mean0.400
Prior mean0.438
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
0.5
2.35 (+135)2.35
- (0)1.00
FD★ Best
0.5
2.45 (+145)2.45
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
2.45 (+145)2.45
- (0)1.00
FD implied, with vig (this side): 40.8%
Confidence readOn the fence
36% to hitrange 29-43%price needs 41%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +145 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
38%
-
62%
2.45 (+145)
(-5.7%)
1
4%
35%
62%
17.43 (+1643) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
HOU
Out · 2
Jalen PitreOUT
Pitre (shoulder) is ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville.
David MontgomeryOUT
The Texans ruled Montgomery (groin) out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Other · 23
Jake Hansen?
Azeez Al-Shaair?
Henry To'oTo'o?
To'oTo'o (shoulder) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Tank Dell?
The Texans ruled out Dell (knee) for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.
Trent Brown
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-12.9%
Edge %-0.6pp
Card ID: c-401872996-BhayshulTuten-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 5:21:10 AM
0.35
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games16
prior_games_fetched16
current_mean0.400
prior_mean0.438
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games21
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.402
player_espn_id4882093
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
?
Jadeveon Clowney?
Ja'Marcus Ingram?
The Texans opened Ingram's 21-day return window from injured reserve Wednesday.
Braden Smith?
The Texans activated Smith (foot) from their injured reserve list Wednesday.
Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed Wednesday that Harrison will make his team debut Sunday versus the Jaguars in London, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Woody Marks?
Marks is expected to handle a lead role out of the backfield during Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London after Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced Monday that fellow running back David Montgomery (groin) is viewed as week-to-week, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Kayshon Boutte?
Boutte caught three of five targets for 38 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Marlin Klein?
Febechi Nwaiwu?
Aiden Fisher?
Collin Wright?
Sabastian Harsh?
Chris Braswell?
Nate Thomas?
Ka'imi Fairbairn?
Fairbairn converted on all six of his kicks (four field goals, two extra points) during the Texans' 26-3 win over the Titans on Sunday.
Dalton Schultz?
Schultz caught three of four targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Xavier Hutchinson?
Hutchinson caught four of five targets for 65 yards in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans.
Jaylin Noel?
Noel caught all five of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 26-3 win over Tennessee.
C.J. Stroud?
Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-3 win over the Titans. He added five rushing yards and a TD on six carries.
JAX
Out · 2
Ross MatiscikOUT
Matiscik (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.
Montaric BrownOUT
Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Other · 23
Eric Murray?
Murray (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Nate Boerkircher?
Boerkircher (back) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.
Cole Van Lanen?
Emmanuel Pregnon?
Jarrian Jones?
Jourdan Lewis?
Travis Hunter?
Hunter recorded a nine-yard reception and tallied six tackles and a pass breakup in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles in London.
Josh Cameron?
Cameron caught three of six targets for 43 yards during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London. He also returned one kickoff for 18 yards and added a tackle on special teams.
Anton Harrison?
Harrison is slated to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week and could be out for 3-to-5 weeks or 3-to-4 months, depending on what surgeons find while performing the procedure, Michael DiRocco and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.
Albert Regis?
Wesley Williams?
CJ Williams?
Daniel Faalele?
Alijah Huzzie?
Cam Little?
Little made both of his field goals and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Jaguars' 19-17 win over the Eagles on Sunday in London.
Jakobi Meyers?
Meyers caught two of three targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 19-17 win against the Eagles.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.?
Rodriguez rushed twice for five yards and caught his only target for six yards during Sunday's 19-17 win over Philadelphia.
Brian Thomas Jr.?
Thomas failed to catch any of his three targets in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Brenton Strange?
Strange caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence?
Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles. He added 25 rushing yards on three carries.
Bhayshul Tuten?
Tuten carried the ball 22 times for 72 yards and caught two of three targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Parker Washington?
Washington caught six of nine targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 19-17 win over the Eagles.
Bryan Thomas Jr.?
Thomas was ejected from Sunday's game in London after receiving an unnecessary roughness penalty for fighting with the Eagles' Jeremiah Trotter following the opening kickoff, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Bhayshul Tuten · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.45 (+145) the price needs 41% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYHOU
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-2.0
HOMEJAX
4-1
L104-1
StreakW3
Home0-0
Run diff+53.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Bhayshul Tuten · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsPHIW0Miss
Oct 4@CINW0Miss
Sep 27vsNEW1Hit
Sep 20@DENL1Hit
Sep 13vsCLEW0Miss
Jan 11vsBUFL0Miss
Jan 4vsTENW1Hit
Dec 14vsNYJW1Hit
Dec 7vsINDW0Miss
Nov 30@TENW1Hit
Nov 23@ARIW0Miss
Nov 16vsLACW1Hit
Nov 9@HOUL0Miss
Nov 2@LVW1Hit
Oct 19vsLARL0Miss
Oct 12vsSEAL0Miss
Oct 7vsKCW0Miss
Sep 28@SFW0Miss
Sep 21vsHOUW1Hit
Sep 14@CINL1Hit
Sep 7vsCARW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 41% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
