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Anytime TD 0.5 · SEA · @ DEN · Seahawks at Broncos
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
15%
Market %
8%
Diff
-37.2%
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
+1100
12.00
Projection0.3vs0.5(-37%)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
42%
5/12
SZN
42%
5/12
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+7.5pp
EV
83.2%
Alpha Score
28
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
K 5.00u
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 31% from 0.38 TD per game over 12 games, priced P(yes) 15%
›Model read P(yes) 31% sits 24pp off the market. Anytime TD has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 8% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: SEA has 8 OUT
›Opponent DEN missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ SEA has 8 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)7.8%
Fair price+1182 · 12.82
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.31 vs 0.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched8
Current mean0.250
Prior mean0.625
›All model inputs (17)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
+110012.00
01.00
FD
0.5
+110012.00
01.00
FANATICS
0.5
+100011.00
01.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 8.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
15% to hitrange 7-24%price needs 8%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +1100 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 28?
TOTAL
28/100
Win prob+0/ 55
Calibrated win probability 15%
Market+-10/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (8% our side)
Price+15/ 15
83.2% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 0; published as 28 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (375.2% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
40%
-
60%
+1100
(+375.2%)
1
6%
33%
60%
+951 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)5.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.25u
EV %83.2%
Edge %+7.5pp
Card ID: c-401872995-ToryHorton-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance0.56
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched8
current_mean0.250
prior_mean0.625
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games12
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.377
player_espn_id4597703
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 17
Velus Jones Jr.?
Jones was signed from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against the Broncos.
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 18
Riley Moss
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Tory Horton · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
25%
1/4 over · avg 0.3
LAST 10
25%
1/4 over · avg 0.3
SEASON
25%
1/4 over · avg 0.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +1100 the price needs 8% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Tory Horton · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsSFL0Miss
Oct 4vsLACW1Hit
Sep 27@WSHL0Miss
Sep 20@ARIW0Miss
Nov 3@WSHW2Hit
Oct 21vsHOUW0Miss
Oct 12@JAXW0Miss
Oct 5vsTBL1Hit
Sep 26@ARIW0Miss
Sep 21vsNOW1Hit
Sep 14@PITW1Hit
Sep 7vsSFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 8% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
