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Sam Darnold · Interceptions Thrown · Bet Data Labs
Interceptions Thrown 0.5 · SEA · @ DEN · Seahawks at Broncos
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
60%
Market %
55%
Diff
+144.0%
Market
Interceptions Thrown 0.5
DK
-141
1.71
Projection1.2vs0.5(+144%)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
50%
12/24
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
2.5%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.89u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 10-4 on DarnoldK 3.57u
Why this card
›Interceptions Thrown projection 1.2 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(over) 72% sits 17pp off the market. Interceptions Thrown has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 55% across 4 books
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: SEA has 8 OUT
›Opponent DEN missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ SEA has 8 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)55.0%
Fair price-122 · 1.82
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.22 vs 0.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games24
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched20
›All model inputs (19)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
-1411.71
+1102.10
DK implied, with vig (this side): 58.5%
Confidence readOn the fence
60% to hitrange 52-67%price needs 59%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -141 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+45/ 55
Calibrated win probability 60%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 55% on our side
Price+6.3/ 15
2.5% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 58; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (22.3% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5nowbest EV
72%
-
28%
-141
+22.3%
1
41%
30%
28%
-145 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)3.57u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.89u
EV %2.5%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401872995-SamDarnold-PASS_INTERCEPTIONSPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance1.06
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propPASS_INTERCEPTIONS
games24
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched20
current_mean1.25
prior_mean0.700
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
variance_floor0.700
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3912547
season2026
push
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 55% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Elijah ArroyoD
Arroyo (shoulder) is doubtful to return to Thursday's game against Denver.
Other · 16
Velus Jones Jr.?
Jones was signed from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against the Broncos.
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler Badie
★ RECENT FORM
Sam Darnold · Interceptions Thrown vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
75%
3/4 over · avg 1.3
LAST 10
75%
3/4 over · avg 1.3
SEASON
75%
3/4 over · avg 1.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At -141 the price needs 59% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Sam Darnold · Interceptions Thrown vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsSFL2Hit
Oct 4vsLACW1Hit
Sep 27@WSHL2Hit
Sep 10vsNEW0Miss
Feb 8@NEW0Miss
Jan 25vsLARW0Miss
Jan 18vsSFW0Miss
Jan 4@SFW0Miss
Dec 28@CARW1Hit
Dec 19vsLARW2Hit
Dec 14vsINDW0Miss
Dec 7@ATLW1Hit
Nov 30vsMINW0Miss
Nov 23@TENW0Miss
Nov 16@LARL4Hit
Nov 9vsARIW1Hit
Nov 3@WSHW1Hit
Oct 21vsHOUW1Hit
Oct 12@JAXW0Miss
Oct 5vsTBL1Hit
Sep 26@ARIW0Miss
Sep 21vsNOW0Miss
Sep 14@PITW2Hit
Sep 7vsSFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 59% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Q
Badie (thumb) won't return to Thursday's game against Seattle, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. He finished with one carry for six yards.
Other · 17
Jaylen Waddle?
Riley Moss?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
