Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Receptions 1.5 · SEA · @ DEN · Seahawks at Broncos
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
61%
Diff
+33.3%
Market
Receptions 1.5
DK
-174
1.57
Projection2.0vs1.5(+33%)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
62%
16/26
H2H
-
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-10.6pp
EV
-20.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on Shaheed
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (15% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 2.0 vs line 1.5
›Edge test fails: 33% looks big, but the actual gap is only 0.5 and Receptions needs 1 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 61% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: SEA has 8 OUT
›Opponent DEN missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ SEA has 8 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2773 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 50%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1390 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 1.5)60.9%
Fair price-156 · 1.64
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.00 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched21
Current mean1.80
Prior mean3
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
-1741.57
+1362.36
FD
2.5
+1482.48
-2001.50
DK implied, with vig (this side): 63.5%
Confidence readPrice too short
50% to hitrange 46-55%price needs 64%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -174 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+16.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 50%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 61% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 13; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (15% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5
73%
-
27%
-1200
-21.4%
1push-safe
58%
15%
27%
-211 fair
-
1.5
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-20.7%
Edge %-10.6pp
Card ID: c-401872995-RashidShaheed-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance1.70
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched21
current_mean1.80
prior_mean3
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games26
player_espn_id4032473
season2026
now
58%
-
42%
-172
-8.2%
2
42%
16%
42%
+100 fair
-
2.5
42%
-
58%
+172
(+14.2%)
3.5
27%
-
73%
+443
(+49.1%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 60% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 17
Velus Jones Jr.?
Jones was signed from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against the Broncos.
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 18
Riley Moss?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
Rashid Shaheed · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 1.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 1.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 1.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At -174 the price needs 64% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Rashid Shaheed · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsSFL2Hit
Oct 4vsLACW1Miss
Sep 27@WSHL2Hit
Sep 20@ARIW3Hit
Sep 10vsNEW1Miss
Feb 8@NEW2Hit
Jan 25vsLARW1Miss
Jan 18vsSFW0Miss
Jan 4@SFW1Miss
Dec 28@CARW1Miss
Dec 19vsLARW0Miss
Dec 14vsINDW5Hit
Dec 7@ATLW4Hit
Nov 30vsMINW1Miss
Nov 23@TENW0Miss
Nov 16@LARL2Hit
Nov 9vsARIW1Miss
Nov 2@LARL5Hit
Oct 26vsTBL9Hit
Oct 19@CHIL4Hit
Oct 12vsNEL4Hit
Oct 5vsNYGW4Hit
Sep 28@BUFL4Hit
Sep 21@SEAL4Hit
Sep 14vsSFL4Hit
Sep 7vsARIL6Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 64% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
