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Receiving Yards 22.5 · SEA · @ DEN · Seahawks at Broncos
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
22.5
UNDER
22.5
Our win %
43%
Market %
50%
Diff
+2.7%
Market
Receiving Yards 22.5
DK
-110
1.91
Projection23.1vs22.5(+3%)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
62%
16/26
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-6.9pp
EV
-18.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on Shaheed
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 39.5 at +240 (+7.6% EV)
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 23.1 vs line 22.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.6 gap is only 3% of the 22.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 22.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: SEA has 8 OUT
›Opponent DEN missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ SEA has 8 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 22.5)49.9%
Fair price+101 · 2.01
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line23.10 vs 22.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched21
Current mean19.20
Prior mean36.40
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
22.5
-1101.91
-1151.87
FD
22.5
-1131.88
-1131.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.4%
Confidence readPrice too short
43% to hitrange 37-49%price needs 52%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -110 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Best value is the 39.5 at +240 (7.6% EV) - a better number than the 22.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4.5
71%
-
29%
-700
-19.4%
9.5
65%
-
35%
-340
-15.3%
14.5
60%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-18.0%
Edge %-6.9pp
Card ID: c-401872995-RashidShaheed-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance23.00
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched21
current_mean19.20
prior_mean36.40
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games26
player_espn_id4032473
season2026
-
40%
-190
-8.5%
19.5
54%
-
46%
-135
-5.6%
22
51%
1%
48%
-105 fair
-
22.5now
51%
-
49%
-110
-3.2%
23
50%
1%
49%
-100 fair
-
24.5
48%
-
52%
+103
-1.8%
29.5
43%
-
57%
+142
+3%
39.5best EV
32%
-
68%
+240
+7.6%
49.5
22%
-
78%
+400
(+12.3%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 17
Velus Jones Jr.?
Jones was signed from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against the Broncos.
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 18
Riley Moss?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Rashid Shaheed · Receiving Yards vs 22.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 19.2
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 19.2
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 19.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At -110 the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Rashid Shaheed · Receiving Yards vs 22.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsSFL23Hit
Oct 4vsLACW20Miss
Sep 27@WSHL14Miss
Sep 20@ARIW35Hit
Sep 10vsNEW4Miss
Feb 8@NEW27Hit
Jan 25vsLARW51Hit
Jan 18vsSFW0Miss
Jan 4@SFW2Miss
Dec 28@CARW8Miss
Dec 19vsLARW0Miss
Dec 14vsINDW74Hit
Dec 7@ATLW67Hit
Nov 30vsMINW7Miss
Nov 23@TENW0Miss
Nov 16@LARL27Hit
Nov 9vsARIW3Miss
Nov 2@LARL68Hit
Oct 26vsTBL75Hit
Oct 19@CHIL40Hit
Oct 12vsNEL28Hit
Oct 5vsNYGW114Hit
Sep 28@BUFL47Hit
Sep 21@SEAL42Hit
Sep 14vsSFL52Hit
Sep 7vsARIL33Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 22.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
