Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rushing Yards 0.5 · DEN · vs SEA · Seahawks at Broncos
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
45%
Market %
50%
Edge
-5.4pp
Market
Rushing Yards 0.5
DK
1.88
-114
Projection2.8vs0.5(+460%)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
10/19
SZN
53%
10/19
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-5.4pp
EV
-15.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Jr.
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 1.5 at 1.98 (-102) (+1.8% EV)
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 2.8 vs line 0.5
›Edge test fails: 460% looks big, but the actual gap is only 2.3 and Rushing Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: DEN has 7 OUT
›Opponent SEA missing 8, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ DEN has 7 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)50.4%
Fair price1.98 · -102
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.80 vs 0.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games2
Prior games6
Prior games fetched17
Current mean1.50
Prior mean4.60
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.91 (-110)1.91
FD
1.5
1.98 (-102)1.98
1.80 (-125)1.80
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readPrice too short
45% to hitrange 44-46%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Best value is the 1.5 at -102 (1.8% EV) - a better number than the 0.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
52%
-
48%
1.88 (-114)
-1.5%
1
51%
1%
48%
1.93 (-108) fair
-
1.5best EV
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-15.6%
Edge %-5.4pp
Card ID: c-401872995-MarvinMimsJr.-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games2
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean1.50
prior_mean4.60
current_weight0.570
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games19
player_espn_id4686472
season2026
51%
-
49%
1.98 (-102)
+1.8%
4.5
48%
-
52%
2.74 (+174)
(+32%)
9.5
43%
-
57%
4.90 (+390)
(+109.7%)
14.5
38%
-
62%
8.00 (+700)
(+200.7%)
19.5
33%
-
67%
11.60 (+1060)
(+278.9%)
24.5
28%
-
72%
16.40 (+1540)
(+360.7%)
29.5
24%
-
76%
22.00 (+2100)
(+426.4%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Elijah ArroyoD
Arroyo (shoulder) is doubtful to return to Thursday's game against Denver.
Other · 16
Velus Jones Jr.?
Jones was signed from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against the Broncos.
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler BadieQ
Badie (thumb) won't return to Thursday's game against Seattle, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. He finished with one carry for six yards.
Other · 17
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle suffered a shoulder injury in the third quarter of Thursday's game against the Seahawks but was able to return, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post and Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com report.
Riley Moss?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Bo Nix
★ RECENT FORM
Marvin Mims Jr. · Rushing Yards vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
LAST 10
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
SEASON
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Marvin Mims Jr. · Rushing Yards vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 11@LACW3Hit
Oct 4@SFL0Miss
Jan 25vsNEL0Miss
Jan 17vsBUFW0Miss
Jan 4vsLACW0Miss
Dec 26@KCW0Miss
Dec 21vsJAXL3Hit
Dec 14vsGBW8Hit
Dec 7@LVW2Hit
Dec 1@WSHW9Hit
Nov 16vsKCW2Hit
Oct 26vsDALW18Hit
Oct 19vsNYGW13Hit
Oct 12@NYJW-2Miss
Oct 5@PHIW9Hit
Sep 30vsCINW16Hit
Sep 21@LACL0Miss
Sep 14@INDL0Miss
Sep 7vsTENW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
