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Courtland Sutton · Receiving Yards · Bet Data Labs
Receiving Yards 30.5 · DEN · vs SEA · Seahawks at Broncos
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
30.5
UNDER
30.5
Our win %
44%
Market %
50%
Diff
+2.3%
Market
Receiving Yards 30.5
FD
-113
1.88
Projection29.8vs30.5(+2%)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
42%
10/24
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=1646
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards under plays: 49% of 1646 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-6.0pp
EV
-17.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-0 on Sutton
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 29.8 vs line 30.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.7 gap is only 2% of the 30.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~56% have hit 49% over 1646 graded, of which 825 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
›Baby line: 30.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: DEN has 7 OUT
›Opponent SEA missing 8, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ DEN has 7 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1646 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 56% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 825 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 30.5)50.0%
Fair price+100 · 2.00
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/15, 8:13 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line29.80 vs 30.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched19
Current mean20.80
Prior mean57.20
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
32.5
-1101.91
-1141.88
FD★ Best
30.5
-1131.88
-1131.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readPrice too short
44% to hitrange 36-52%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 30.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9.5
30%
-
70%
+233 fair
-
14.5
35%
-
65%
+189 fair
-
19.5
39%
-
61%
+154 fair
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 8
Jalen MilroeOUT
Milroe (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Denver, though he will once again serve as the Seahawks' emergency quarterback.
Brandon PiliOUT
inactive
Avery SmithOUT
inactive
Montorie Foster Jr.OUT
inactive
Robert Henry Jr.OUT
inactive
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-17.1%
Edge %-6.0pp
Card ID: c-401872995-CourtlandSutton-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/16/2026, 12:13:42 AM
Variance29.70
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean20.80
prior_mean57.20
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games24
player_espn_id3128429
season2026
-
24.5
45%
-
55%
+125 fair
-
29.5
50%
-
50%
+101 fair
-
30
50%
1%
49%
-101 fair
-
30.5now
51%
-
49%
-113
-4.4%
31
51%
1%
48%
-105 fair
-
32.5
53%
-
47%
-114
-0.9%
39.5
60%
-
40%
-150 fair
-
49.5
69%
-
31%
-227 fair
-
59.5
78%
-
22%
-345 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 17
Irv Charles?
Charles was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster ahead of Thursday's game against Denver, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Nehemiah Pritchett?
DEN
Out · 7
Sam EhlingerOUT
Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against Seattle, though he is listed as the emergency quarterback, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Tyler OnyedimOUT
inactive
Talanoa HufangaOUT
inactive
Jordan JacksonOUT
inactive
Dallen BentleyOUT
inactive
Kage CaseyOUT
inactive
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 18
Riley Moss?
Moss (ribs) is available for Thursday's game against the Seahawks, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
Courtland Sutton · Receiving Yards vs 30.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 20.8
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 20.8
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 20.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -113 the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Courtland Sutton · Receiving Yards vs 30.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11@LACW18Hit
Oct 4@SFL4Hit
Sep 28vsLARW46Miss
Sep 20vsJAXW25Hit
Sep 15@KCL11Hit
Jan 25vsNEL17Hit
Jan 17vsBUFW53Miss
Jan 4vsLACW5Hit
Dec 26@KCW40Miss
Dec 21vsJAXL86Miss
Dec 14vsGBW113Miss
Dec 7@LVW62Miss
Dec 1@WSHW62Miss
Nov 16vsKCW59Miss
Nov 7vsLVW24Hit
Nov 2@HOUW30Hit
Oct 26vsDALW67Miss
Oct 19vsNYGW87Miss
Oct 12@NYJW17Hit
Oct 5@PHIW99Miss
Sep 30vsCINW81Miss
Sep 21@LACL118Miss
Sep 14@INDL6Hit
Sep 7vsTENW61Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 30.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards under) hit 48.8% over 1,646 graded cards, 1,642 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
