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C.J. Gardner-Johnson · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
Tackles + Assists 5.5 · BUF · @ LAR · Bills at Rams
4 games this season, 14 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
62%
Market %
57%
Diff
+17.8%
Market
Tackles + Assists 5.5
DK
-155
1.65
Projection4.5vs5.5(+18%)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
67%
12/18
SZN
67%
12/18
H2H
100%
2/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+4.4pp
EV
1.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.44u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
K 1.77u
◆Best lineBuy up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake (11% push)
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 4.5 vs line 5.5
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 57% across 1 book
›Injury kill: BUF has 8 OUT
›Opponent LAR missing 5, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ BUF has 8 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)57.1%
Fair price+133 · 2.33
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/12, 8:08 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.52 vs 5.5
4 games this season, 14 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games18
Current games4
Prior games14
Prior games fetched14
›All model inputs (19)
Variance2.54
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
5.5
+1192.19
-1551.65
DK implied, with vig (this side): 60.8%
Confidence readOn the fence
62% to hitrange 52-70%price needs 61%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -155 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+49.4/ 55
Calibrated win probability 61%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 57% on our side
Price+2.9/ 15
1.1% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 67; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this under up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake instead of losing (11% of outcomes), same win chance as the 5.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
5
50%
12%
39%
-129 fair
-
5.5nowbest EV
61%
-
39%
-155
+1.1%
6
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)1.77u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.44u
EV %1.1%
Edge %+4.4pp
Card ID: c-401872994-C.J.Gardner-Johnson-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/13/2026, 12:08:31 AM
◆ GRADED · 2026-10-12
This card is settled.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
7
line 5.5
Units
-1.00u
Price CLV vs close: +0.3% - entry -154 → close -155 · 147 snapshots
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games18
current_games4
prior_games14
prior_games_fetched14
current_mean4.50
prior_mean5
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4034953
season2026
push-safe
61%
11%
28%
-220 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 57% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELAR
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-1.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 7
Ty JohnsonQ
Johnson (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) officially didn't practice Thursday.
Ed OliverQ
The Bills listed Oliver (knee) as a non-participant in Wednesday's walk-through practice.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Dee AlfordQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Other · 18
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Khalil Shakir?
LAR
Questionable / DTD · 5
Colby ParkinsonQ
Parkinson (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Kam CurlQ
questionable
Nate LandmanQ
Landman (wrist) was listed as a limited participant on the Rams' estimated injury report Wednesday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Davis AllenQ
Allen was listed as a non-participant Wednesday on the Rams' estimated injury report due to a foot injury, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Josh WallaceQ
questionable
Other · 20
Keagen Trost?
The Rams designated Trost (hamstring) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Thursday.
Alaric Jackson?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
Jackson's suspension for an act of unsportsmanlike conduct during Monday's game versus the Bills has been reduced to one game, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Myles Garrett?
Head coach Sean McVay told reporters Tuesday that Garrett (knee) will not return to practice this week and will not play against the Cardinals on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.
Blake Grupe?
The Rams signed Grupe off the Jets' practice squad Tuesday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Larrell Murchison?
Bill Murray?
Max Klare?
CJ Daniels?
Tyler Higbee?
Higbee brought in five of six targets for 83 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Blake Corum?
Corum rushed five times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in three of four targets for 53 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Davante Adams?
Adams brought in five of seven targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Kyren Williams?
Williams rushed 16 times for 49 yards and a touchdown and brought in six of eight targets for 27 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Matthew Stafford?
Stafford completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Puka Nacua?
Nacua brought in 17 of 24 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for nine yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Quentin Lake?
Lake (hip) is active for Monday's game against the Bills, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Ty Simpson?
Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Bills on Monday, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Jaylen Watson?
Watson (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against the Bills, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Grant Stuard?
Josaiah Stewart?
Aaron Donald?
Donald (back) didn't practice Saturday, per head coach Sean McVay, but he's "good to go" for Monday's game versus the Bills, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
★ RECENT FORM
C.J. Gardner-Johnson · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.0
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.0
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 5.0
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -155 the price needs 61% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
C.J. Gardner-Johnson · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 13@LARW7Miss
Oct 4vsNEL4Hit
Sep 27vsLACW5Hit
Sep 18vsDETW1Hit
Sep 13@HOUW8Miss
Jan 18vsLARL4Hit
Jan 4vsDETL6Miss
Dec 29@SFL5Hit
Dec 21vsGBW3Hit
Dec 14vsCLEW4Hit
Dec 7@GBL10Miss
Nov 28@PHIW3Hit
Nov 23vsPITW1Hit
Nov 16@MINW4Hit
Nov 9vsNYGW9Miss
Nov 2@CINW6Miss
Sep 21@JAXL5Hit
Sep 15vsTBL6Miss
Sep 7@LARL4Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 61% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
